Defy The Conventional Wisdom
Nobody likes to get made fun of at their fantasy draft. And that, unfortunately, is exactly what can easily happen if you decide to pull the trigger on a kicker before the final round. Oftentimes, I've been the guy yelling, "reach" in your ears loud enough that they begin to ring. I will make you one promise: this year, I won't do any yelling about your early kicker pick, as long as the name of that kicker is David Akers. If you decide to go Seabass, or Gostkowski, I might pipe up. But so long as you make the proper decision, and draft the aging 49er, I will tell you that it was a job well done.
The conventional wisdom is that you just can't know what kicker is going to come through, or play the role of huge bust in any given year. Given that fact, the belief is, you shouldn't try to figure it out. That conventional wisdom isn't wise at all, though... in the case of 1 man. Let's start with last year. Compared to the remainder of the kicking field, Akers was a full 2 points better than his nearest competition on a per-game / 16 game basis. (Standard scoring, and Janikowski only played 15 games) He also beat Janikowski by over 1.7 points per game on a per-game basis. Do you want to hear something really crazy - on a VBD basis, when viewed in hindsight, you ought to have drafted Akers last year at roughly the same point you were drafting Michael Turner. Don't worry, I didn't either.
So, you say, "who cares, it was one year." Friends, it hasn't been just one year. Let's step back to the 2010 draft...the year before last. In 2010 Akers was almost as good...on the opposite side of the country. On a per game basis, he was a full point better than every other kicker in the league...save Janikowski. Time for more crazy - on a VBD basis, when viewed in hindsight, you ought to have drafted Akers at roughly the same place Steven Jackson was being drafted. Remember, that is Steven Jackson from 2 years ago.
Do you know who kicked the most field goals in the NFL in 2009? The name is Akers (he tied with Kaeding). In 2008 he kicked the 3rd-most (surely McNabb's fault). There are some who believe that the 9ers offense is upgraded, and I am among that group. That upgrade doesn't change the fact that Harbaugh is going to put points on the board every chance he gets. Even with a reduction in volume to some degree, I expect Akers to be near the top of the league when all is said, and done.
So, when it is the 11th round, and you are thinking about Mark Ingram, think again. Draft a kicker - just this 1. It is the right thing to do.
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