Top-10 Free Agent WRs

Ranking the Top-10 Free-Agent WRs...For Fantasy Purposes

     Anyone who has read my rantings over the course of the past week knows that I am of the belief that fundamental change has come to the NFL.  As long as James Harrison remains defanged, the Wide Receivers will roam, and run...wild.  To add accelerant to the passing-game fire, 2012 is shaping up to be a bonanza for those in receiving need.  I don't recall a WR free agent class as stacked as this.  When you throw in Moss, and the possibility of TO, maybe even the Bears end up with a legitimate pass catcher.  Even if they continue to, "get off the bus running", it can't hurt to have someone with whom J Cut can team.  So, let's get to it...in reverse order

10. Robert Meachem - Most of the free agent WR hype has been directed toward a different member of the receiving corps in New Orleans this offseason, but that's only because you can have priorities when your split ends are stacked as deep as they are in the Big Easy.  A better option than Manningham, Wayne, and even Garcon, we tend to forget that Meachem was once a first round draft pick.  He's still fast.  During the first 5 weeks of the 2011 NFL season, while Marques Colston was getting injured, out due to injury, and returning, Meachem had 4+ catches every week.  He also pocketed 3 TDs during those 1st 5 weeks.  Once Colston returned, Meachem went back into fantasy witness protection.  Whether it is due to the departure of Colston, or his own, expect Meachem to compete with his personal best of 722 yards, and 9 TDs that he posted in 2009.

9. Brandon Lloyd - 2 years removed from pacing the NFL in receiving (1448 yards), Brandon Lloyd has settled back a bit.  Even so, his performance during 2011 ranked him in the top 16 of NFL wideouts for consistent production.  One of the largest risks WRs pose for fantasy players is disappearing.  Lloyd has tended not to do that.  His best production has come while tied to a Josh McDaniels offense (now in New England).  The Patriots need a wideout, and Lloyd could be the answer.  Only his recent failure to produce game-WINNING performances keeps him down at 9th.

8. Stevie Johnson - Why is Stevie Johnson perceived to be an elite NFL wide receiver?  Is it the nickname?  Is it the propensity to blame God for drops?

 
     Whatever the reason, I disagree with the premise.  The guy just isn't that good.  While being the clear #1 in Buffalo for the past 2 seasons, S.J. has managed just over a 1,000 yards both years, and an average of 8.5 TDs.  That's good, but it isn't elite.  What happens to him in an offense where there are other targets?  The argument is those other options will open the field for him.  As you saw in the clip above, open doesn't mean he necessarily catches the ball.

7. DeSean Jackson - DJax is another wideout whose name overshadows the ability.  He's a malcontent who doesn't understand that his usefulness in the NFL is limited given that he's afraid to get hit.  I understand why he's afraid to get hit, but it should put the clamps on anyone thinking of overpaying.  Given that his career best is 1,156 and 9 - (3 years ago!) - I think that should be viewed as a ceiling.  It is an ambitious ceiling at that.

Imagine the damage he could take on an illegal shot.

6. Laurent Robinson - 2011's breakout star did a great job as a fill-in, and was in a great situation.  His body of work isn't large enough to rank him even higher, though the possibility exists that he continues to live up to the improved bar he has set for himself.  A TD machine from the middle of the season on, Laurent looks like he emerged at the right time to get paid.  Finding himself in a situation where he actually has to be "the guy" is the only real risk.  He's 26, and his best production is likely ahead of him.

5. Vincent Jackson - This is a mercurial, talented player who WINS, and LOSES as many games for his fantasy owners as anyone else on this list.  I have watched him enough to know the deflation that can come on a Sunday afternoon when he quits on a jump ball.  In 60% of the games last year he underperformed statistical acceptability.  That won't get it done at the big price he'll draw.  He's never had 1,200 yards in a season.  He's never had double-digit TD catches.  He's always had a guy presumed to be elite throwing him the ball.  I recommend he stays in San Diego...and you leave him alone in the 2nd, or 3rd round where he'll be taken.

4. Marques Colston - This little TE, big WR paved the way for today's Rob Gronkowsis, and Jimmy Grahams.  Taken in the 7th round out of Hofstra, he has been amazingly consistent - from year to year.  If you take Colston, expectations are for 7+ TDs, and 1,000+ yards.  You also need to plan for 2 missed games, and little chance for anything overwhelming.  He ranks ahead of VJax because when he plays, he plays more consistently.  His career bests are better than VJax in both TDs, and yards.  Both receivers were born in '83.  For some reason, Jackson is likely to get more on the open market, and go earlier in fantasy drafts.  Some believe Colston is a "system" receiver who has excelled because of his opportunity to play in a dome his whole career.  Even if that is part of the story, it isn't all of it.

3. Dwayne Bowe - Bowe has really limited his drops, and improved his consistency.  During the past year, Bowe didn't show up in half of the games from a statistical point of view.  He is a player who needs to be secured at an appropriate value.  He's never had 1,200 yards in a season, and has always been the #1 WR in town (he did have to compete for looks early on with Tony Gonzales).  The reason to reach for Bowe, if you do, is in hopes of a repeat of his 2010 TD numbers (15).  His regression to 5 this year probably was an anomaly on the downside.  Only his 24 year-old age moves him slightly ahead of Colston, and Jackson.

2. Mike Wallace - In terms of pure talent, he far exceeds the guy ahead of him on this list.  In almost every statistical category, however, he just doesn't measure up.  At the age of 25, he has the opportunity to improve on his routes, and reduce the drops.  Anecdotally, the 2nd half of this year didn't seem nearly as good as the 1st, and his production drop off coincided with the emergence of Antonio Brown - another dynamic, young receiver.  It is possible that plays were called late in the year to hold down his value in the upcoming offseason.  That seems far-fetched to me.  I think it is more likely he was recognized to be Pittsburgh's #1 weapon, and defenses were rolled his way.  

1. It took over a year, but Welker is back.  It would be unwise for him to go somewhere else, but it might not be his decision.  Safety blanket duty for Tom Brady should yield points for another year, or two.  He was more consistent, nominally better, and can likely be had for similar value to Wallace next year.  Expect a floor of 1,200 yards with 5 TDs.  The ceiling is much higher.

How Soon Is Too Soon?

The disparate tales of Peyton Manning, and Rob Gronkowski

     There were very few, if any, players whose failure to participate in organized NFL football last year crushed fantasy owners as viciously as Peyton Manning.  Those whose drafts occurred in the Spring, and early Summer, certainly felt the pain.  Even those whose drafts took place in the immediate lead-up to Packers vs. Saints were led astray.  In one league, a fellow competitor took Manning 35th mere days before the start of the season.  No one could be sure what Manning would do in 2011, but nothing instantly took some managers out of contention.
     So, what is to make of Peyton's 2012 prospects.  The first concern, or course, is the basic question of health.  Just today it was announced by ESPN's Adam Schefter, and others, that Peyton Manning appears to have undergone, not 3, but rather 4 surgeries and procedures to deal with his neck issues.  Follow the link for Schefter's report.

ESPN Manning Report (Schefter)

     Even if Manning remains on the Colts, there is no guarantee that his claim to the position is locked up for the year - as it has been in seasons past.  Andrew Luck (QB) from Stanford is expected to be drafted #1 overall.  In addition to the looming challenge within his own ranks, Reggie Wayne (WR) is a free agent.  I imagine Wayne can get paid reasonably well somewhere if the Colts don't want to ante up for a repeat of his services.  Can the Colts pay Wayne?  If Peyton insists on his upcoming 28 million dollar roster bonus they certainly can't.
     If Manning has to go elsewhere, the situation does not improve markedly.  According to Boomer Esiason of CBS Sports, speaking today on 670 AM in Chicago, the two most likely landing spots outside of Indy appear to be Miami, and Washington.  We know the Redskins have nobody to  catch the football (I refuse to acknowledge the 74 year-old, 5 ft. 1 inch Santana Moss).  Miami does have Brandon Marshall at present, but it remains to be seen if he stays.  I don't even want to get to the point of projecting if Marshall's anti-psycosis medication(s?) hold up.  I'll take another stab at him (pun intended) as the season approaches.
     So, where does that leave us.  I don't think we know much more now than we did in the lead-up to the season last year.  And we have a paradigm we use to make decisions when that is the case.

     
     I knew what he was trying to say.  Unless I see Peyton Manning actually throwing 50-yard outs during the preseason, I don't want any part of him.  If I do, I think he's backup material, or maybe a starter in VERY deep leagues (14+ teams).  He could move up to the top-10, but I think it is unlikely.

     While Peyton was doing his best to contribute to an insane discussion about who is the top NFL Manning ever (By the way - it's still Peyton), Rob Gronkowski was doing his best to rewrite the NFL record book.  When not partying with porn stars, or managing to butcher Spanglish (yes, he somehow butchered Spanglish), he proved to be absolutely uncoverable (probably not a word) on the football field.  In 2011 he wasn't just the best tight end, he was the second best receiver (behind Calvin Johnson).  If it weren't for his postseason ankle injury, I know that we'd be hearing quite a chorus of people who believe he should be taken in the top-10 of fantasy drafts next year.  Some, including ESPN's Matthew Berry, are saying it anyway.

Matthew Berry Ranks

     You've got to be really careful with Berry. Remember, he's the guy who said take Michael Vick #1 overall last year, and make sure to grab Antonio Gates really early too.  I have an MD friend who I am sure goes to bed at night cursing Berry for that Michael Vick recommendation.  I am also sure that friend isn't alone.
     So, what is to be done with Gronkowski.  It bears mentioning that the Patriots didn't really have a deep threat last year of the traditional variety.  Deion Branch was the closest thing to it, and he managed a little over 700 yards with 5 TDs.  Welker, for all of his impressiveness, is a glorified possession receiver.  Gronkowski WAS the deep threat last year.  That is going to change...somewhat.  1. Defenses will adjust their coverages to jam Gronkowski more at the line of scrimmage, 2. The Patriots will pick up a quality #1 receiver before the start of the 2012 season, 3. It remains to be seen when, and in what state Gronk comes back from his injury, 4. The Patriots are known for their tactical misdirection.  Just when you think you are going to get a decade of a dominant offensive player (save Tom Brady), they switch it up. And most importantly, 5. Aaron Hernandez will still be lurking.  Gronkowski managed what he did in part because Aaron Hernandez missed 13% of the regular season, and was physically limited by injury in another 13%.      Expect a 25% reduction in Gronkowski's yards next year, and a 30% reduction in touchdown receptions.  That puts Gronk right around 1,000 yards with 12 TDs.  With those numbers he would be the second best tight end, and eighth best pass-catcher overall.  He is going to go really early next year, but it is always unwise to pay for last year's performance.  Going off the board before pick 23 is too early.  The highlights below are impressive.

The Mid-February Top-10

Gauging the prospects for the first round of the 2012 Fantasy Football Draft

     2011 was a record-breaker of epic proportions in the NFL, and savvy participants who saw it coming benefited in the fantasy realm as well.  Drew Brees, and Tom Brady both surpassed the "unbreakable record" previously held by Dan Marino of 5,084 passing yards in a single NFL season.  I guess it was only unbreakable until the NFL decided it would be illegal to touch wide-receivers with any violence over, and above that necessary to kill a household fruit fly.  With the additional attention that is being paid to concussive, and sub-concussive hits, the likelihood that QBs in the future will re-break Brees' new standard of 5,476 yards seems high.  It might not happen in 2012, but it will happen.
     Rob Gronkowski didn't just break records as a tight end, his 17 TD performance was good for a tie in FIFTH PLACE all-time amongst pass catchers of any stripe.  FIFTH.  Every single player tied with, or ahead of Gronk is in the Hall of Fame.  It was quite the fiesta last year.

     While the passers, and receivers were tearing it up, running backs took a further historical step back in 2011.  Not one RB finished with a rushing total to rank in the top-45 all-time.  MJD's 1,606 yards nets him 48th place all.  2011 wasn't the first year of this continuing trend.  In 2010 only one running back cracked the top-50 all-time (Arian Foster).  Ditto for 2009 (CJ...the year he actually got 2K).  The guys toting the rock out of the backfield are either doing it in a committee these days, or are having to find more, and more of their yardage through the air to stack up against fantasy offensive players at other positions.  Ray Rice, and Darren Sproles got a lot of their yardage through the air.  704 yards in the case of Sproles.  Fantasy purists can hate it all they want, but the trend is to chuck it.  I expect 2012 to bring more of the same.
     So, without further ado, it is on to the 2012 Fantasy Football Mid-February Rankings.  Feel free to critique, and criticize.  They are pretty solid, and based on a proprietary formula.  These rankings are geared to a standard league with standard scoring (NO PPR).

1. Aaron Rodgers - Not since the days of LaDainian Tomlinson in his heyday in San Diego has their been a #1 selection this clear.  His offensive line sucked in 2011...and he was still great.  The Packers had no running game...and he was still great.  His team was coming off a Super Bowl, and could easily have had a let-down season...and he was still great.  This ranking assumes his general good health, and the return of a Jermichael Finley in comparatively happy spirits.  Finley's contract status, or displeasure with the arrangement reached could do a little damage, but not enough to change the ranking.  940.86 points on a 1,000 point scale.  Values for consistency, value, upside outlier performances, and nominal point scoring were considered.  As we get closer to the season these points will change based upon personnel changes, staff changes, and health.

2. Drew Brees - No player ranked as high as he is could see as precipitous a fall from here as could Drew.  As I write this, there appear, according to multiple channels, to be very real fears that the Saints might lose, or part ways with either 1.) Marques Colston (WR), or 2.) Carl Nicks (LG).  While it is true that the Saints have a franchise tag they could use to keep one of these guys tied up, the Saints still haven't worked out a long-term deal with Brees himself.  When you add in the suspect nature of the Saints D, there is no guarantee that Brees isn't down both a key weapon, and an integral protector going into next year.  820.24 points.

3. LeSean McCoy - Biggest risks to LeSean's retention in the realm of fantasy glory are the fact that Michael Vick's season may have been an outlier to the downside, and that the Eagles could lose the field-stretching services of DeSean Jackson(WR).  McCoy scored the touchdowns that Vick had in the year prior, and some rebalancing is likely to take place.  The injury at the end of 2011 is another lingering concern for a player ranked this highly.  802.02 points.

4. Ray Rice - The little guy was every bit the success his owners hoped for in 2011.  If the Ravens can settle Joe Flacco into a more calm state of mind, the sky is the limit for RR.  He benefited tremendously from the addition of Vonta(e?) Leach(FB), and that collaboration is likely to continue.  In just the past couple weeks, Ricky Williams (RB) announced that 2011 was his last year in the bigs.  We'll have to wait and see if the "herb of the earth" led him to his decision, will lead him to change his mind, or had no impact at all.  739.46 points.

5. Arian Foster - He seems fully recovered from the preseason injury that cost some of his fantasy owners a run at the title in 2011.  What is sure to be an unsettled quarterback situation going into 2012 puts a bit of a damper on the upside, but this thoughtful back could easily be in the mix to break records.  733.98 points. 

6. MJD - A year removed from a career-changing injury scare, and all MJD did was come up big for owners in 2011.  With Blaine Gabbert doing very little to take the pressure off through the air, MJD did what was required - play workhorse back in a league that doesn't use workhorse backs anymore.  He is another year older, but he has an intangible value that goes overlooked...the guy plays, and loves fantasy football himself.  He WANTS to do well for his owners.  I don't see how the situation in Jacksonville gets worse than 2011, and MJD was a stud then.  714.49 points.

7. Cam Newton - He blew away the NFL, and Fantasy Football in 2011.  In some leagues he made his original owners very happy when their wait for Tony Romo didn't pan out.  In others, he permitted managers to trade mid-season for high end pieces for the title run.  The concern here is that his performance could be a bit of an outlier - like Vick in 2010.  I don't think so.  His consistency from game-to-game, and physical size call that comparison into question.  Cam Newton doesn't get hit by linebackers.  He hits linebackers...who he is much bigger than.  Maybe he steps back a little bit, but not a lot.  703.05 points.

8. Tom Brady - The Patriots could certainly decide that they are going to change everything up next year, and run the ball more.  If they lose Welker, don't get Moss, and Gronkowski's ankle doesn't heal, that might be realistic.  In the absence of such a perfect storm, and the emergence of a running back who doesn't have a lame nickname (the law firm, really?), I think it is more aerial attack more of the time.  Also, the Patriots are notorious record hounds.  If there is any chance, I guarantee they try to unseat Drew Brees at the top of the record book. 701.48 points.

9. Calvin Johnson - Megatron was a beast last year, but owners should know that no player in the first round has his value so inextricably tied to exogenous forces (see Matthew Stafford, and his known fragility).  His quarterback got through the entirety of last year upright, but watching pudge play always makes me worried.  Stafford does have some mobility, and if his O-Line continues to improve, Calvin should still see the ball plenty.  All it will take is one unblocked Julius Peppers, or delayed blitz from the Clay Matthews band to change all that.  637.84 points.

10.  Matthew Stafford - I didn't want to rank him here, but the numbers say I have to.  In addition to Calvin, he has serviceable additional wideouts and a potential stud at tight end (Pettigrew).  I think by the time August rolls around, and we have more information, some running backs pass him up.  As for now, he's number 10.  603.93 points.

 

Get Your 84 Jerseys Out

     The Return of the Moss
    
     In fairness, it is the middle of February, but the biggest NFL news of the past 24 hours must be the impending unretirement (not a word) of Mr. Randy Moss.  If you haven't seen the wonderful montage of Moss-isms below, it is a must-view.  If you have, it is worth another look.  Beyond the basic questions of (1) why is Randy breaking his cleats out of the closet, and (2) when does he expect to get a look by interested teams, the most important issue from my perspective is, "will Moss be fantasy-relevant?"
     Assuming that Peyton Manning maintains eligibility for comeback player of the year, it might be difficult for Moss to make a run at that title.  Difficult, that is, if he lands in a poor spot with a weak-armed quarterback, or run-first offensive scheme.  According to a couple of the analysts on ESPN's First Take this am (Bomani Jones, and Michael Holley), it is being implied in some circles that the Patriots could be interested in giving their own Randy-ratio another go.  A thoroughgoing discussion, and video of the varied merits of Moss, and Terrell Owens can be found here.  http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7570336/randy-moss-says-wants-return-football-2012
     Returning to the land of chowdah, and Kennedys would make the upcoming year a promising one for Moss in both the NFL, and derivative football worlds.  At this early date, I have to imagine that Randy cracks the top-25 wide receivers if he is in say...Jacksonville - with the amazing Blaine Gabbert.  Conversely, if Tom Terrific is throwing him the ball, I don't think top-10 is a stretch by any means. 
     What did Moss lose by sitting out 2011?  He didn't get fat.  Even if he can't run, or jump quite like he did a couple years ago, do you really think he will be unable to put up Stevie Johnson (Buffalo) numbers?  What about Percy Harvin numbers?  If it is Ponder to Harvin, and Brady to Moss, I'll take Randy.

That is, "straight-cash Homie."

Your 2012 Fantasy Draft

     It is never too early to begin thinking about the right moves to make in the upcoming 2012 Fantasy Football Draft.  Maybe you have only 1 to plan for, or perhaps a cool dozen.  Whichever is the case, there is only 1 right answer.  I don't want to say it, but I must.  As a Brett Favre fan, it causes me great pain to state with utmost certainty, "YOU MUST DRAFT AARON RODGERS at #1 this year if afforded the opportunity."  It goes without saying that, if you get the opportunity to scoop him up later, it is a no-brainer.
     By almost any metric, Mr. Rodgers made hand-puppets out of the Real NFL, and the derivative variety in which we participate.  Unless you participate in a league that managed to overwhelm the typical QB bias inherent in fantasy football, AND you selected perfectly during your 2011 fantasy draft, the team with the Double Check Champion very likely finished at, or toward, the top of your league this year.  Everything I've said so far begs the question, though, "Why will A.R. do it again?"  The answer, as simply put as possible, is that there is no reason to believe otherwise.

1. Aaron Rodgers scores points.  In standard formats, during the first 16 weeks of the NFL season last year, A.R.  scored 25 points more than the closest competitive QB (Drew Brees), and crushed the RB competition by over 80 (LeSean McCoy).

2. Aaron Rodgers provides value.  By this point in your fantasy football career, if you don't know what the concept of value based drafting is, it is time to either hang up your laptop, or get with the program.  I don't believe you HAVE TO follow the tenets of the philosophy, but you had better know what it is.  Using this tool, and valuing a replacement player as the 15th QB, or 35th RB, Rodgers again outpointed McCoy by over 20.  No other position player was anywhere near Rodgers.

3. Aaron Rodgers has big games.  During the course of 2011's first 16 weeks, Rodgers had performances that outpaced even his typical elite level in 14 of those 16 weeks.  Although Drew Brees, and LeSean McCoy also had great years, both of their results pale in comparison when considering how many games they personally WON for his fantasy owner last year.

4. Aaron Rodgers is consistent.  Of all the statistics in fantasy football, the most underutilized is probably the notion of consistency.  While not the spice of life, consistency is the spice that turns a mediocre fantasy football season into a run at glory.  There is a HUGE reason that Rodgers, MJD, Calvin Johnson, and Jimmy Graham show up time, and again on analyses of winning 2011 fantasy football teams.  In addition to their outliers on the upside, each had very few POOR performances.  In fact, Aaron Rodgers didn't have any.

   So, I know you'll get heat from your crazy friend who still believes that someone like LaDainian Tomlinson circa 5 years ago is going to run wild next year.  I suppose McCoy, Rice, or someone else might.  But 1 thing is for sure...from my vantage point here on the 13th of February, I don't think you should bet on it.