Defy The Conventional Wisdom
Nobody likes to get made fun of at their fantasy draft. And that, unfortunately, is exactly what can easily happen if you decide to pull the trigger on a kicker before the final round. Oftentimes, I've been the guy yelling, "reach" in your ears loud enough that they begin to ring. I will make you one promise: this year, I won't do any yelling about your early kicker pick, as long as the name of that kicker is David Akers. If you decide to go Seabass, or Gostkowski, I might pipe up. But so long as you make the proper decision, and draft the aging 49er, I will tell you that it was a job well done.
The conventional wisdom is that you just can't know what kicker is going to come through, or play the role of huge bust in any given year. Given that fact, the belief is, you shouldn't try to figure it out. That conventional wisdom isn't wise at all, though... in the case of 1 man. Let's start with last year. Compared to the remainder of the kicking field, Akers was a full 2 points better than his nearest competition on a per-game / 16 game basis. (Standard scoring, and Janikowski only played 15 games) He also beat Janikowski by over 1.7 points per game on a per-game basis. Do you want to hear something really crazy - on a VBD basis, when viewed in hindsight, you ought to have drafted Akers last year at roughly the same point you were drafting Michael Turner. Don't worry, I didn't either.
So, you say, "who cares, it was one year." Friends, it hasn't been just one year. Let's step back to the 2010 draft...the year before last. In 2010 Akers was almost as good...on the opposite side of the country. On a per game basis, he was a full point better than every other kicker in the league...save Janikowski. Time for more crazy - on a VBD basis, when viewed in hindsight, you ought to have drafted Akers at roughly the same place Steven Jackson was being drafted. Remember, that is Steven Jackson from 2 years ago.
Do you know who kicked the most field goals in the NFL in 2009? The name is Akers (he tied with Kaeding). In 2008 he kicked the 3rd-most (surely McNabb's fault). There are some who believe that the 9ers offense is upgraded, and I am among that group. That upgrade doesn't change the fact that Harbaugh is going to put points on the board every chance he gets. Even with a reduction in volume to some degree, I expect Akers to be near the top of the league when all is said, and done.
So, when it is the 11th round, and you are thinking about Mark Ingram, think again. Draft a kicker - just this 1. It is the right thing to do.
Stay tuned for more from the Fantasy Football Lawyer
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
The Top-10 Fantasy Football QBs...As of July 25th
1. Aaron Rodgers - Absolutely nothing has changed in the landscape of professional football to force Mr. Rodgers to relinquish his lofty ranking. His receiving corps is healthy, he isn't presently concussed...as far as we know, and Green Bay spent virtually every draft pick upgrading their defense - because the offense is THAT good. Although he will have some challenging DBs playing against him during the course of the next year, he only faces 3 games against a top-10 pass D this coming year (2011 stats), and 4 games against a top-10 scoring D. Any publication you read that knocks him out of the top overall spot in favor of someone like Arian Foster had to drop Rodgers' TD projections precipitously - a notable example is Pro Football Weekly who took him from his 2011 actual of 45 TDs down to a projection of 35 in 2012. They provided no discussion as to how they reached that conclusion. Other things to keep in mind: a. his rushing stats are likely to increase a bit from 2011, b. he only played in 15 games last year, c. he's got Brees' record to chase, d. Jeff Saturday comes in to anchor the line, and e. in 2011 Aaron Rodgers arguably had 0 bad games. The closest thing to it was week 15 where he put up 235 yards through the air with 1 TD. Imagine rostering a QB where that is his "bad" game. The realistic projection here is 4,800 yards, and 40 TDs passing with an additional 300 yards, and 4 TDs on the ground.
Packers Update (7/25/12)
2. Drew Brees - Whew, they got him signed. That would have been really weird to have Drew playing in New Orleans under the franchise tag. Anyway, the only reason to consider placing Brees any lower than this is the absence of Sean Payton. I don't think you should be worried about the absence of Sean Payton. Do you remember last year? Do you remember Sean Payton getting rolled up on the sideline, and being unable to call plays? What sort of dropoff did you see? The answer is none. Pete Carmichael, Jr. will be calling the plays - just as he did during Coach Payton's injury last year. Brees will function as another coach on the field. Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and Devery Henderson will again make it impossible for defenses to cover everyone. Oh, one other thing, the Saints have arguably the easiest schedule in football this year in terms of the defenses they'll face. Based upon 2011 statistics, the Saints face only 1 of the top-10 passing defenses in the league (yardage). If points are a more comfortable barometer for you, they only face 2 of the top-10 scoring defenses. Even with the loss of their left guard, Carl Nicks, the Saints maintain one of the top-10 offensive lines in all of football. (added Ben Grubbs from the Ravens) A reasonable projection is 5,300 yards with 40+ TDs. He'll also get you another 100 yards, and a score on the ground. He should be drafted in the top-half of the first round.
3. Tom Brady - Tom Brady is an amazing player in an amazing situation. He has a top-5 offensive line, 2 TEs - of whom either would be selected to start by the vast majority of NFL franchises, the top possession receiver in the game (W. Welker), and now a legitimate deep threat ( B. Lloyd). He plays for a team that respects the idea of securing records, and has one such record to chase (D. Brees yardage). So, that's the good. The only thing that keeps Tom Terrific from ranking in the same stratosphere as the players listed above is the level of competition he is going to face this year. Brady will face 6 games against a top-10 pass D this coming year, and 7 against a top-10 scoring D. Last year, in comparison, it was 5, and 4. The loss of BenJarvis Green-Ellis in free agency means the running game will be of uncertain quality. When you add it all up, last year should be viewed as a most-probable outcome with any divergence coming to the downside. Look for 5,200 yards in the air, around 40 passing TDs, and add in another 100 yards on the ground with 1 score running. He is a great value late in the first round, and criminal early in the second.
4. Matthew Stafford - NO PLAYER IN THE TOP-10 FANTASY QB RANKINGS IS AT A LARGER RISK OF DIVERGENCE FROM EXPECTED OUTCOME THAN IS MATT STAFFORD. 2011 was Stafford's first pro season where he lasted to the end. In a division where he has to face Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, and Clay Matthews a total of 6 times, it could easily be the last season he makes it to the end. This isn't just an abstraction based upon the quality of defensive players he's likely to face. Stafford's offensive line is, charitably, average. It is probably more accurate to say that they are bad. Maybe not worst in the league bad, but bad nonetheless. Also, Stafford's likelihood of living up to this ranking is tied directly to 1 target - Calvin Johnson. Maybe you like Brandon Pettigrew - I do too - in the 14th, or 15th round of my draft. Maybe you like Nate Burleson - that's not for me. Ultimately, this means that in order to justify taking Stafford where you'll have to in order to secure his services (probably 2nd round), you are relying on not only Stafford's health, but Megatron's as well. It is cool to give football players fun nicknames, and Megatron is 1. But, it isn't that accurate. Remember, in addition to Stafford's situation, 2011 was also the first pro year that Johnson played in all 16 games. If Jahvid Best (concussions), and Mikel Leshoure (weed) can get on, and stay on the field, some pressure might get taken off the passing game. For fantasy football purposes, this is the quintessential double-edged sword. When all that is combined with the fact that Stafford faces 4 of the top-10 passing Ds, and 5 of the top-10 scoring Ds, it seems unlikely that he will be able to statistically repeat what he did last year - though I expect he'll get close. His statistical projection is 4,900 yards passing with 36 passing scores. Expect about 100 yards more on the ground with 1 rushing TD. He is likely to miss a game, or even two because of injury. Secure another elite player, and get Stafford late in the 2nd round if you can.
5. Cam Newton - No quarterback in the history of NFL quarterbacks statistically burst onto the scene quite like Cam Newton. All the guy did was set records. Are they repeatable? Some people believe that the NFL lockout was a boon to Cam - leaving defenses ill-prepared for his other-worldly combination of size, speed, and passing ability. What do the game logs tell us? After week 4 of last year, Cam failed to surpass 300 yards passing in every game he played. He failed to pass for over 200 yards in each of the year's final 3 games. He even failed to throw a touchdown pass at all in 2 of his outings. But, the man did run...into the endzone on 14 occassions, and for a total of over 700 yards. The Panthers have one of the best offensive lines in the game, and Mr. Newton has an easy schedule - 1 game against a top scoring D, and 2 against a top pass D. The rushing TDs probably regress a bit, but the rest of it holds up just fine. Best projection is 4,000 yards passing with 23 TD passes. Running the ball he figures to chew up 800 yards, but probably secures 10, or fewer rushing TDs. Keep in mind that the Panthers went out, and got Mike Tolbert to further muddy the running water, and limit all other goalline opportunities. He is value at the beginning of the 3rd round, but you'll probably have to take him in the middle of the 2nd if you want to roll with him.
6. Eli Manning - The younger, less-talented, but more successful Manning is the direction you should consider going if you pass / miss on the elite QB list. That's right, there are 5 elite QBs. You can call it a tier if you'd like. Unlike some of the pigskin tossers who find themselves a bit lower on this list, Manning finds himself here because he upped his game to close to elite standards in '11. Historically a 4,000 yd / yr passer (4,021 - '09 / 4,002 - '10), Eli somehow found 900 additional yards last year. The source of those 900 additional yards goes by the name Victor Cruz. Unfortunately for Manning, the Giants, and anyone interested in their fantasy prospects, is that the 2011 Giants featured 3 legitimate WR options (Cruz, Nicks, Manningham). The third of that list is now in San Francisco. It is true that Manningham didn't crack 100 yards in any game in '11, and that he had only 4 TD catches the whole year. Even so, it was the omnipresence of receiving threats that permitted the breakout seasons for both Eli, and Victor. Even with those many varied options, Eli failed to throw a TD pass on 3 separate occasions. He failed to break 300 yards passing in half of his games. Still, if you find yourself pondering Manning, it means that you didn't really put QB at the top of your list of concerns for the upcoming season. He isn't great, but is less bad than the other options available. His O-line is average, and he has a tough schedule (6 games vs. top-10 pass D, 7 games against top-10 scoring D). In total, he won't get to 4,900 yards again. He projects to 4,500 yards through the air with 30 TDs. I don't know if he can't run, but he certainly doesn't. I don't expect that to change. Eli is a 6th round value who will leave appropriately leave draft boards between the 5th, and 6th.
7. Michael Vick - You only draft Michael Vick if you plan to make decisions regarding his utilization on a week-to-week basis considering the matchups he confronts. He CAN win games for you singlehandedly, and he WILL lose games for you singlehandedly if you are up against a team with an elite QB in that particular week. Many were angered when they followed Matthew Berry's (The Talented Mr. Roto) advice last year, and took Michael Vick in a position as if he were an elite fantasy QB. They should be angry because his advice was RIDICULOUS. Michael Vick is the opposite of what you want out of an elite fantasy QB. If he is a paragon of anything it is inconsistency. You know this character from other sports. He is the talented streak shooter who sometimes can't buy a bucket. He is the 3-outcome baseball player who 1 year flirts with the strikeout record (Adam Dunn), and the next year hits 30 homers before August 1st (also Adam Dunn). You can draft this player. You can win with this player. You just can't win your league playing this player every week. So, don't try. Other issues should go without saying, but I'll say them anyway: He won't be healthy every week. Don't expect him to be, or bitch when he isn't. He will throw lots of interceptions. Don't bitch when he does. Just make sure to guess right concerning the weeks he'll go off. Good luck with that. He has 6 games against a top-10 rush D, 4 against a top-10 pass D, and 4 against a top-10 scoring D. Which, overall, isn't so bad. His offensive line is average, and his recievers (D.Jax/Maclin/Celek) are probably just better than the line - in comparison. A reasonable projection for Vick is 3,400 yards passing with 22 TD passes. I expect his production will steal a bit back from what McCoy vultured last year. On the ground he'll run for 600, and he'll find the endzone 8 times, or so. If you can get him in the 6th, it is good value. Unfortunately, you'll probably have to take him by the end of the 4th to get him on your team. Even though many were burned by him, the excitement of watching Vick run around on Monday Night Football is just too much for some players to avoid.
8. Philip Rivers - Put up your hands if you think Philip Rivers was a bust last year. Ok...so...all of you. Well, you're wrong. Philip Rivers just stayed on planet Earth while Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and others headed to the stratosphere. Consider 2010 - Rivers threw for 4,710 and 30 scores. In 2011 it was 4,624 and 27 scores. He also had a couple more picks, and ran for a TD that he didn't secure in 2010. So, again, not a bust. I don't want to be relying him in the modern age of fantasy football, but he wasn't a bust. He loses V.Jax, but picks up Meachem. That's a downgrade, but not a huge one. He loses Mike Tolbert, but supposedly Matthews is ready to carry the load...that discussion is for another day. He only had 1 game where he failed to throw a TD pass. If you can't handle the delta that Vick will give, and you waited this long to get a QB, grab Rivers. His offensive line is somewhere below average, and his upcoming matchups are about average as well (5 games against a top-10 passing D, 5 against a top-10 scoring D). Given that this year's schedule is statistically more difficult than last, I can't predict much improvement. Best prediction is 4,700 yards, and 30 TDs. He'll limit the INTs a bit, and be just fine - for the 8th best statistically in the game.
9. Peyton Manning - His neck might be fine, or it might not. Once you get to number 9 on the QB list, you probably should be considering drafting the 10th, or 11th best QB as well. Let's imagine a healthy Peyton Manning. It is 2010. He plays in all 16 games. He has Reggie Wayne to throw the ball to. He has complementary pieces that are serviceable. He throws 679 passes! And the end result is he throws for 4,700 yards + 33 scores. If he does that this year, he's the 6th best on this list (considering projections). That, my friends, is not what a healthy Peyton Manning does this year. Remember, there's no more home dome. You trade an aging Reggie Wayne, young Austin Collie, young Pierre Garcon( I don't know how to include the symbol above his last name), and Dallas Clark. Now you get Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Jacob Tamme. That's NOT an upgrade. He plays 7 games against a top-10 pass D, and 5 against a top-10 scoring D. That is average, or below. What that adds up to is a ceiling of 4,600 + 32 TD. Prediction is 4,400 + 30.
10. Jay Cutler - Allright, Chicago, here you go. The #10 ranked quarterback in all of fantasy footballand is none other than Jay Cutler. But Mr. Weck, Jay Cutler has never had a statistical season that warrants such a ranking. Once again, my friends, you are mistaken. Jay Cutler has put his band back together. He has his old QB coach back, he still has his safety blanket from college (Earl Bennett), and he managed to pry psychotic(not sure if that is the accurate term) Brandon Marshall out of Miami. The last time Jay had such assembled familiarity, and happiness he threw for 4,526 with 28 TDs. That was before quarterbacks regularly threw for 4,526. That was 2008. Since then, all Jay has done is improve. Well, he's gotten his head bashed in by a horrible offensive line...but he has improved. He's improved his footwork. He's improved his decisionmaking. He's improved his leadership. He learned all these things from Mike Martz. Jay didn't like Mike Martz, but he certainly improved under his tutelage. Which leads us to 2012. Jay's O-line still sucks. It is one of the worst in the game. There is an ongoing battle to see which horrible lineman gets to not protect Jay's blindside. Jay might not play 16 games. But if the play calling changes enough, and if someone, anyone decides to block, it might be o.k. Remember, you waited to get the 10th best QB. The Bears play only 4 games against a top-10 pass D, and also 4 against a top-10 scoring D. We haven't yet mentioned Alshon Jeffrey, Matt Forte, Michael Bush, or Devin Hester. They'll be along for the ride too. A reasonable prediction is 4,500 and 29. It could even be better, but let's not push our luck.
Stay tuned for future installments of the Fantasy Lawyer's Top-10s over the next couple weeks.
Packers Update (7/25/12)
2. Drew Brees - Whew, they got him signed. That would have been really weird to have Drew playing in New Orleans under the franchise tag. Anyway, the only reason to consider placing Brees any lower than this is the absence of Sean Payton. I don't think you should be worried about the absence of Sean Payton. Do you remember last year? Do you remember Sean Payton getting rolled up on the sideline, and being unable to call plays? What sort of dropoff did you see? The answer is none. Pete Carmichael, Jr. will be calling the plays - just as he did during Coach Payton's injury last year. Brees will function as another coach on the field. Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and Devery Henderson will again make it impossible for defenses to cover everyone. Oh, one other thing, the Saints have arguably the easiest schedule in football this year in terms of the defenses they'll face. Based upon 2011 statistics, the Saints face only 1 of the top-10 passing defenses in the league (yardage). If points are a more comfortable barometer for you, they only face 2 of the top-10 scoring defenses. Even with the loss of their left guard, Carl Nicks, the Saints maintain one of the top-10 offensive lines in all of football. (added Ben Grubbs from the Ravens) A reasonable projection is 5,300 yards with 40+ TDs. He'll also get you another 100 yards, and a score on the ground. He should be drafted in the top-half of the first round.
3. Tom Brady - Tom Brady is an amazing player in an amazing situation. He has a top-5 offensive line, 2 TEs - of whom either would be selected to start by the vast majority of NFL franchises, the top possession receiver in the game (W. Welker), and now a legitimate deep threat ( B. Lloyd). He plays for a team that respects the idea of securing records, and has one such record to chase (D. Brees yardage). So, that's the good. The only thing that keeps Tom Terrific from ranking in the same stratosphere as the players listed above is the level of competition he is going to face this year. Brady will face 6 games against a top-10 pass D this coming year, and 7 against a top-10 scoring D. Last year, in comparison, it was 5, and 4. The loss of BenJarvis Green-Ellis in free agency means the running game will be of uncertain quality. When you add it all up, last year should be viewed as a most-probable outcome with any divergence coming to the downside. Look for 5,200 yards in the air, around 40 passing TDs, and add in another 100 yards on the ground with 1 score running. He is a great value late in the first round, and criminal early in the second.
4. Matthew Stafford - NO PLAYER IN THE TOP-10 FANTASY QB RANKINGS IS AT A LARGER RISK OF DIVERGENCE FROM EXPECTED OUTCOME THAN IS MATT STAFFORD. 2011 was Stafford's first pro season where he lasted to the end. In a division where he has to face Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, and Clay Matthews a total of 6 times, it could easily be the last season he makes it to the end. This isn't just an abstraction based upon the quality of defensive players he's likely to face. Stafford's offensive line is, charitably, average. It is probably more accurate to say that they are bad. Maybe not worst in the league bad, but bad nonetheless. Also, Stafford's likelihood of living up to this ranking is tied directly to 1 target - Calvin Johnson. Maybe you like Brandon Pettigrew - I do too - in the 14th, or 15th round of my draft. Maybe you like Nate Burleson - that's not for me. Ultimately, this means that in order to justify taking Stafford where you'll have to in order to secure his services (probably 2nd round), you are relying on not only Stafford's health, but Megatron's as well. It is cool to give football players fun nicknames, and Megatron is 1. But, it isn't that accurate. Remember, in addition to Stafford's situation, 2011 was also the first pro year that Johnson played in all 16 games. If Jahvid Best (concussions), and Mikel Leshoure (weed) can get on, and stay on the field, some pressure might get taken off the passing game. For fantasy football purposes, this is the quintessential double-edged sword. When all that is combined with the fact that Stafford faces 4 of the top-10 passing Ds, and 5 of the top-10 scoring Ds, it seems unlikely that he will be able to statistically repeat what he did last year - though I expect he'll get close. His statistical projection is 4,900 yards passing with 36 passing scores. Expect about 100 yards more on the ground with 1 rushing TD. He is likely to miss a game, or even two because of injury. Secure another elite player, and get Stafford late in the 2nd round if you can.
5. Cam Newton - No quarterback in the history of NFL quarterbacks statistically burst onto the scene quite like Cam Newton. All the guy did was set records. Are they repeatable? Some people believe that the NFL lockout was a boon to Cam - leaving defenses ill-prepared for his other-worldly combination of size, speed, and passing ability. What do the game logs tell us? After week 4 of last year, Cam failed to surpass 300 yards passing in every game he played. He failed to pass for over 200 yards in each of the year's final 3 games. He even failed to throw a touchdown pass at all in 2 of his outings. But, the man did run...into the endzone on 14 occassions, and for a total of over 700 yards. The Panthers have one of the best offensive lines in the game, and Mr. Newton has an easy schedule - 1 game against a top scoring D, and 2 against a top pass D. The rushing TDs probably regress a bit, but the rest of it holds up just fine. Best projection is 4,000 yards passing with 23 TD passes. Running the ball he figures to chew up 800 yards, but probably secures 10, or fewer rushing TDs. Keep in mind that the Panthers went out, and got Mike Tolbert to further muddy the running water, and limit all other goalline opportunities. He is value at the beginning of the 3rd round, but you'll probably have to take him in the middle of the 2nd if you want to roll with him.
6. Eli Manning - The younger, less-talented, but more successful Manning is the direction you should consider going if you pass / miss on the elite QB list. That's right, there are 5 elite QBs. You can call it a tier if you'd like. Unlike some of the pigskin tossers who find themselves a bit lower on this list, Manning finds himself here because he upped his game to close to elite standards in '11. Historically a 4,000 yd / yr passer (4,021 - '09 / 4,002 - '10), Eli somehow found 900 additional yards last year. The source of those 900 additional yards goes by the name Victor Cruz. Unfortunately for Manning, the Giants, and anyone interested in their fantasy prospects, is that the 2011 Giants featured 3 legitimate WR options (Cruz, Nicks, Manningham). The third of that list is now in San Francisco. It is true that Manningham didn't crack 100 yards in any game in '11, and that he had only 4 TD catches the whole year. Even so, it was the omnipresence of receiving threats that permitted the breakout seasons for both Eli, and Victor. Even with those many varied options, Eli failed to throw a TD pass on 3 separate occasions. He failed to break 300 yards passing in half of his games. Still, if you find yourself pondering Manning, it means that you didn't really put QB at the top of your list of concerns for the upcoming season. He isn't great, but is less bad than the other options available. His O-line is average, and he has a tough schedule (6 games vs. top-10 pass D, 7 games against top-10 scoring D). In total, he won't get to 4,900 yards again. He projects to 4,500 yards through the air with 30 TDs. I don't know if he can't run, but he certainly doesn't. I don't expect that to change. Eli is a 6th round value who will leave appropriately leave draft boards between the 5th, and 6th.
7. Michael Vick - You only draft Michael Vick if you plan to make decisions regarding his utilization on a week-to-week basis considering the matchups he confronts. He CAN win games for you singlehandedly, and he WILL lose games for you singlehandedly if you are up against a team with an elite QB in that particular week. Many were angered when they followed Matthew Berry's (The Talented Mr. Roto) advice last year, and took Michael Vick in a position as if he were an elite fantasy QB. They should be angry because his advice was RIDICULOUS. Michael Vick is the opposite of what you want out of an elite fantasy QB. If he is a paragon of anything it is inconsistency. You know this character from other sports. He is the talented streak shooter who sometimes can't buy a bucket. He is the 3-outcome baseball player who 1 year flirts with the strikeout record (Adam Dunn), and the next year hits 30 homers before August 1st (also Adam Dunn). You can draft this player. You can win with this player. You just can't win your league playing this player every week. So, don't try. Other issues should go without saying, but I'll say them anyway: He won't be healthy every week. Don't expect him to be, or bitch when he isn't. He will throw lots of interceptions. Don't bitch when he does. Just make sure to guess right concerning the weeks he'll go off. Good luck with that. He has 6 games against a top-10 rush D, 4 against a top-10 pass D, and 4 against a top-10 scoring D. Which, overall, isn't so bad. His offensive line is average, and his recievers (D.Jax/Maclin/Celek) are probably just better than the line - in comparison. A reasonable projection for Vick is 3,400 yards passing with 22 TD passes. I expect his production will steal a bit back from what McCoy vultured last year. On the ground he'll run for 600, and he'll find the endzone 8 times, or so. If you can get him in the 6th, it is good value. Unfortunately, you'll probably have to take him by the end of the 4th to get him on your team. Even though many were burned by him, the excitement of watching Vick run around on Monday Night Football is just too much for some players to avoid.
8. Philip Rivers - Put up your hands if you think Philip Rivers was a bust last year. Ok...so...all of you. Well, you're wrong. Philip Rivers just stayed on planet Earth while Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and others headed to the stratosphere. Consider 2010 - Rivers threw for 4,710 and 30 scores. In 2011 it was 4,624 and 27 scores. He also had a couple more picks, and ran for a TD that he didn't secure in 2010. So, again, not a bust. I don't want to be relying him in the modern age of fantasy football, but he wasn't a bust. He loses V.Jax, but picks up Meachem. That's a downgrade, but not a huge one. He loses Mike Tolbert, but supposedly Matthews is ready to carry the load...that discussion is for another day. He only had 1 game where he failed to throw a TD pass. If you can't handle the delta that Vick will give, and you waited this long to get a QB, grab Rivers. His offensive line is somewhere below average, and his upcoming matchups are about average as well (5 games against a top-10 passing D, 5 against a top-10 scoring D). Given that this year's schedule is statistically more difficult than last, I can't predict much improvement. Best prediction is 4,700 yards, and 30 TDs. He'll limit the INTs a bit, and be just fine - for the 8th best statistically in the game.
9. Peyton Manning - His neck might be fine, or it might not. Once you get to number 9 on the QB list, you probably should be considering drafting the 10th, or 11th best QB as well. Let's imagine a healthy Peyton Manning. It is 2010. He plays in all 16 games. He has Reggie Wayne to throw the ball to. He has complementary pieces that are serviceable. He throws 679 passes! And the end result is he throws for 4,700 yards + 33 scores. If he does that this year, he's the 6th best on this list (considering projections). That, my friends, is not what a healthy Peyton Manning does this year. Remember, there's no more home dome. You trade an aging Reggie Wayne, young Austin Collie, young Pierre Garcon( I don't know how to include the symbol above his last name), and Dallas Clark. Now you get Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Jacob Tamme. That's NOT an upgrade. He plays 7 games against a top-10 pass D, and 5 against a top-10 scoring D. That is average, or below. What that adds up to is a ceiling of 4,600 + 32 TD. Prediction is 4,400 + 30.
10. Jay Cutler - Allright, Chicago, here you go. The #10 ranked quarterback in all of fantasy footballand is none other than Jay Cutler. But Mr. Weck, Jay Cutler has never had a statistical season that warrants such a ranking. Once again, my friends, you are mistaken. Jay Cutler has put his band back together. He has his old QB coach back, he still has his safety blanket from college (Earl Bennett), and he managed to pry psychotic(not sure if that is the accurate term) Brandon Marshall out of Miami. The last time Jay had such assembled familiarity, and happiness he threw for 4,526 with 28 TDs. That was before quarterbacks regularly threw for 4,526. That was 2008. Since then, all Jay has done is improve. Well, he's gotten his head bashed in by a horrible offensive line...but he has improved. He's improved his footwork. He's improved his decisionmaking. He's improved his leadership. He learned all these things from Mike Martz. Jay didn't like Mike Martz, but he certainly improved under his tutelage. Which leads us to 2012. Jay's O-line still sucks. It is one of the worst in the game. There is an ongoing battle to see which horrible lineman gets to not protect Jay's blindside. Jay might not play 16 games. But if the play calling changes enough, and if someone, anyone decides to block, it might be o.k. Remember, you waited to get the 10th best QB. The Bears play only 4 games against a top-10 pass D, and also 4 against a top-10 scoring D. We haven't yet mentioned Alshon Jeffrey, Matt Forte, Michael Bush, or Devin Hester. They'll be along for the ride too. A reasonable prediction is 4,500 and 29. It could even be better, but let's not push our luck.
Stay tuned for future installments of the Fantasy Lawyer's Top-10s over the next couple weeks.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
The Uneasy Big Easy
Why New Orleans Must Ink Bresus to a Long-Term Deal
It is a matter of numbers. The New Orleans Saints, as much as any team, simply have to find a solution to lock up their quarterback to a long term contract. The response quickly comes that it is no big deal. The Saints, it is said, can simply franchise Brees. If only it were that simple. The Saints can't afford to use the franchise tag on Brees because they need it to be available to take care of at least one of their other free agents.,
Pro Football Weekly recently released their list of the top-100 free agents. While the list has its flaws, it is important both for its comprehensive nature, and for the general contours it outlines of the market. The Saints, according to the list, have to navigate an ocean that includes 4 of the top-50 free agents, and 3 of the top-25.
Pro Football Weekly Top-100
There is tremendous consternation on the bayou with the inaction the Saints seem to have shown thus far. Questioned outside of a Jimmy John's this past week, Drew did his best to put a brave face on the situation. The news media is less convinced.
Drew Claims Confidence
Going into the free agency process, the Saints would seem to be in a decent spot. 2012 Salary Cap When the volume of players who need to be paid is considered, it looks less promising. The Saints already have one of the highest paid interior linemen in the NFL (Evans @ Right Guard). Paying Nicks as well would be quite an investment in non-Tackle offensive linemen. The proposed justification is that Drew gets the ball out of his hands so quickly there is no need for great Tackles. It is hard to argue with the most prolific passing offense ever.
But that gets to the question of Colston. Even if the Saints pay Drew, and franchise Nicks, a strong possibility exists that Marques finds himself in a different locale next season. For a player of his consistency, ( 5 1,000 yd seasons in 6 years) that might be a tough pill for the offense to swallow. Parlay that with the likely departure of Robert Meachem, and the importance of the draft increases. Unfortunately for 'Nawlins, they don't have a 1st round pick this year. We all should wish their front office luck.
It is a matter of numbers. The New Orleans Saints, as much as any team, simply have to find a solution to lock up their quarterback to a long term contract. The response quickly comes that it is no big deal. The Saints, it is said, can simply franchise Brees. If only it were that simple. The Saints can't afford to use the franchise tag on Brees because they need it to be available to take care of at least one of their other free agents.,
Pro Football Weekly recently released their list of the top-100 free agents. While the list has its flaws, it is important both for its comprehensive nature, and for the general contours it outlines of the market. The Saints, according to the list, have to navigate an ocean that includes 4 of the top-50 free agents, and 3 of the top-25.
Pro Football Weekly Top-100
There is tremendous consternation on the bayou with the inaction the Saints seem to have shown thus far. Questioned outside of a Jimmy John's this past week, Drew did his best to put a brave face on the situation. The news media is less convinced.
Drew Claims Confidence
Going into the free agency process, the Saints would seem to be in a decent spot. 2012 Salary Cap When the volume of players who need to be paid is considered, it looks less promising. The Saints already have one of the highest paid interior linemen in the NFL (Evans @ Right Guard). Paying Nicks as well would be quite an investment in non-Tackle offensive linemen. The proposed justification is that Drew gets the ball out of his hands so quickly there is no need for great Tackles. It is hard to argue with the most prolific passing offense ever.
But that gets to the question of Colston. Even if the Saints pay Drew, and franchise Nicks, a strong possibility exists that Marques finds himself in a different locale next season. For a player of his consistency, ( 5 1,000 yd seasons in 6 years) that might be a tough pill for the offense to swallow. Parlay that with the likely departure of Robert Meachem, and the importance of the draft increases. Unfortunately for 'Nawlins, they don't have a 1st round pick this year. We all should wish their front office luck.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Top-10 Free Agent WRs
Ranking the Top-10 Free-Agent WRs...For Fantasy Purposes
Anyone who has read my rantings over the course of the past week knows that I am of the belief that fundamental change has come to the NFL. As long as James Harrison remains defanged, the Wide Receivers will roam, and run...wild. To add accelerant to the passing-game fire, 2012 is shaping up to be a bonanza for those in receiving need. I don't recall a WR free agent class as stacked as this. When you throw in Moss, and the possibility of TO, maybe even the Bears end up with a legitimate pass catcher. Even if they continue to, "get off the bus running", it can't hurt to have someone with whom J Cut can team. So, let's get to it...in reverse order
10. Robert Meachem - Most of the free agent WR hype has been directed toward a different member of the receiving corps in New Orleans this offseason, but that's only because you can have priorities when your split ends are stacked as deep as they are in the Big Easy. A better option than Manningham, Wayne, and even Garcon, we tend to forget that Meachem was once a first round draft pick. He's still fast. During the first 5 weeks of the 2011 NFL season, while Marques Colston was getting injured, out due to injury, and returning, Meachem had 4+ catches every week. He also pocketed 3 TDs during those 1st 5 weeks. Once Colston returned, Meachem went back into fantasy witness protection. Whether it is due to the departure of Colston, or his own, expect Meachem to compete with his personal best of 722 yards, and 9 TDs that he posted in 2009.
9. Brandon Lloyd - 2 years removed from pacing the NFL in receiving (1448 yards), Brandon Lloyd has settled back a bit. Even so, his performance during 2011 ranked him in the top 16 of NFL wideouts for consistent production. One of the largest risks WRs pose for fantasy players is disappearing. Lloyd has tended not to do that. His best production has come while tied to a Josh McDaniels offense (now in New England). The Patriots need a wideout, and Lloyd could be the answer. Only his recent failure to produce game-WINNING performances keeps him down at 9th.
8. Stevie Johnson - Why is Stevie Johnson perceived to be an elite NFL wide receiver? Is it the nickname? Is it the propensity to blame God for drops?
Whatever the reason, I disagree with the premise. The guy just isn't that good. While being the clear #1 in Buffalo for the past 2 seasons, S.J. has managed just over a 1,000 yards both years, and an average of 8.5 TDs. That's good, but it isn't elite. What happens to him in an offense where there are other targets? The argument is those other options will open the field for him. As you saw in the clip above, open doesn't mean he necessarily catches the ball.
7. DeSean Jackson - DJax is another wideout whose name overshadows the ability. He's a malcontent who doesn't understand that his usefulness in the NFL is limited given that he's afraid to get hit. I understand why he's afraid to get hit, but it should put the clamps on anyone thinking of overpaying. Given that his career best is 1,156 and 9 - (3 years ago!) - I think that should be viewed as a ceiling. It is an ambitious ceiling at that.
Imagine the damage he could take on an illegal shot.
6. Laurent Robinson - 2011's breakout star did a great job as a fill-in, and was in a great situation. His body of work isn't large enough to rank him even higher, though the possibility exists that he continues to live up to the improved bar he has set for himself. A TD machine from the middle of the season on, Laurent looks like he emerged at the right time to get paid. Finding himself in a situation where he actually has to be "the guy" is the only real risk. He's 26, and his best production is likely ahead of him.
5. Vincent Jackson - This is a mercurial, talented player who WINS, and LOSES as many games for his fantasy owners as anyone else on this list. I have watched him enough to know the deflation that can come on a Sunday afternoon when he quits on a jump ball. In 60% of the games last year he underperformed statistical acceptability. That won't get it done at the big price he'll draw. He's never had 1,200 yards in a season. He's never had double-digit TD catches. He's always had a guy presumed to be elite throwing him the ball. I recommend he stays in San Diego...and you leave him alone in the 2nd, or 3rd round where he'll be taken.
4. Marques Colston - This little TE, big WR paved the way for today's Rob Gronkowsis, and Jimmy Grahams. Taken in the 7th round out of Hofstra, he has been amazingly consistent - from year to year. If you take Colston, expectations are for 7+ TDs, and 1,000+ yards. You also need to plan for 2 missed games, and little chance for anything overwhelming. He ranks ahead of VJax because when he plays, he plays more consistently. His career bests are better than VJax in both TDs, and yards. Both receivers were born in '83. For some reason, Jackson is likely to get more on the open market, and go earlier in fantasy drafts. Some believe Colston is a "system" receiver who has excelled because of his opportunity to play in a dome his whole career. Even if that is part of the story, it isn't all of it.
3. Dwayne Bowe - Bowe has really limited his drops, and improved his consistency. During the past year, Bowe didn't show up in half of the games from a statistical point of view. He is a player who needs to be secured at an appropriate value. He's never had 1,200 yards in a season, and has always been the #1 WR in town (he did have to compete for looks early on with Tony Gonzales). The reason to reach for Bowe, if you do, is in hopes of a repeat of his 2010 TD numbers (15). His regression to 5 this year probably was an anomaly on the downside. Only his 24 year-old age moves him slightly ahead of Colston, and Jackson.
2. Mike Wallace - In terms of pure talent, he far exceeds the guy ahead of him on this list. In almost every statistical category, however, he just doesn't measure up. At the age of 25, he has the opportunity to improve on his routes, and reduce the drops. Anecdotally, the 2nd half of this year didn't seem nearly as good as the 1st, and his production drop off coincided with the emergence of Antonio Brown - another dynamic, young receiver. It is possible that plays were called late in the year to hold down his value in the upcoming offseason. That seems far-fetched to me. I think it is more likely he was recognized to be Pittsburgh's #1 weapon, and defenses were rolled his way.
1. It took over a year, but Welker is back. It would be unwise for him to go somewhere else, but it might not be his decision. Safety blanket duty for Tom Brady should yield points for another year, or two. He was more consistent, nominally better, and can likely be had for similar value to Wallace next year. Expect a floor of 1,200 yards with 5 TDs. The ceiling is much higher.
Anyone who has read my rantings over the course of the past week knows that I am of the belief that fundamental change has come to the NFL. As long as James Harrison remains defanged, the Wide Receivers will roam, and run...wild. To add accelerant to the passing-game fire, 2012 is shaping up to be a bonanza for those in receiving need. I don't recall a WR free agent class as stacked as this. When you throw in Moss, and the possibility of TO, maybe even the Bears end up with a legitimate pass catcher. Even if they continue to, "get off the bus running", it can't hurt to have someone with whom J Cut can team. So, let's get to it...in reverse order
10. Robert Meachem - Most of the free agent WR hype has been directed toward a different member of the receiving corps in New Orleans this offseason, but that's only because you can have priorities when your split ends are stacked as deep as they are in the Big Easy. A better option than Manningham, Wayne, and even Garcon, we tend to forget that Meachem was once a first round draft pick. He's still fast. During the first 5 weeks of the 2011 NFL season, while Marques Colston was getting injured, out due to injury, and returning, Meachem had 4+ catches every week. He also pocketed 3 TDs during those 1st 5 weeks. Once Colston returned, Meachem went back into fantasy witness protection. Whether it is due to the departure of Colston, or his own, expect Meachem to compete with his personal best of 722 yards, and 9 TDs that he posted in 2009.
9. Brandon Lloyd - 2 years removed from pacing the NFL in receiving (1448 yards), Brandon Lloyd has settled back a bit. Even so, his performance during 2011 ranked him in the top 16 of NFL wideouts for consistent production. One of the largest risks WRs pose for fantasy players is disappearing. Lloyd has tended not to do that. His best production has come while tied to a Josh McDaniels offense (now in New England). The Patriots need a wideout, and Lloyd could be the answer. Only his recent failure to produce game-WINNING performances keeps him down at 9th.
8. Stevie Johnson - Why is Stevie Johnson perceived to be an elite NFL wide receiver? Is it the nickname? Is it the propensity to blame God for drops?
Whatever the reason, I disagree with the premise. The guy just isn't that good. While being the clear #1 in Buffalo for the past 2 seasons, S.J. has managed just over a 1,000 yards both years, and an average of 8.5 TDs. That's good, but it isn't elite. What happens to him in an offense where there are other targets? The argument is those other options will open the field for him. As you saw in the clip above, open doesn't mean he necessarily catches the ball.
7. DeSean Jackson - DJax is another wideout whose name overshadows the ability. He's a malcontent who doesn't understand that his usefulness in the NFL is limited given that he's afraid to get hit. I understand why he's afraid to get hit, but it should put the clamps on anyone thinking of overpaying. Given that his career best is 1,156 and 9 - (3 years ago!) - I think that should be viewed as a ceiling. It is an ambitious ceiling at that.
6. Laurent Robinson - 2011's breakout star did a great job as a fill-in, and was in a great situation. His body of work isn't large enough to rank him even higher, though the possibility exists that he continues to live up to the improved bar he has set for himself. A TD machine from the middle of the season on, Laurent looks like he emerged at the right time to get paid. Finding himself in a situation where he actually has to be "the guy" is the only real risk. He's 26, and his best production is likely ahead of him.
5. Vincent Jackson - This is a mercurial, talented player who WINS, and LOSES as many games for his fantasy owners as anyone else on this list. I have watched him enough to know the deflation that can come on a Sunday afternoon when he quits on a jump ball. In 60% of the games last year he underperformed statistical acceptability. That won't get it done at the big price he'll draw. He's never had 1,200 yards in a season. He's never had double-digit TD catches. He's always had a guy presumed to be elite throwing him the ball. I recommend he stays in San Diego...and you leave him alone in the 2nd, or 3rd round where he'll be taken.
4. Marques Colston - This little TE, big WR paved the way for today's Rob Gronkowsis, and Jimmy Grahams. Taken in the 7th round out of Hofstra, he has been amazingly consistent - from year to year. If you take Colston, expectations are for 7+ TDs, and 1,000+ yards. You also need to plan for 2 missed games, and little chance for anything overwhelming. He ranks ahead of VJax because when he plays, he plays more consistently. His career bests are better than VJax in both TDs, and yards. Both receivers were born in '83. For some reason, Jackson is likely to get more on the open market, and go earlier in fantasy drafts. Some believe Colston is a "system" receiver who has excelled because of his opportunity to play in a dome his whole career. Even if that is part of the story, it isn't all of it.
3. Dwayne Bowe - Bowe has really limited his drops, and improved his consistency. During the past year, Bowe didn't show up in half of the games from a statistical point of view. He is a player who needs to be secured at an appropriate value. He's never had 1,200 yards in a season, and has always been the #1 WR in town (he did have to compete for looks early on with Tony Gonzales). The reason to reach for Bowe, if you do, is in hopes of a repeat of his 2010 TD numbers (15). His regression to 5 this year probably was an anomaly on the downside. Only his 24 year-old age moves him slightly ahead of Colston, and Jackson.
2. Mike Wallace - In terms of pure talent, he far exceeds the guy ahead of him on this list. In almost every statistical category, however, he just doesn't measure up. At the age of 25, he has the opportunity to improve on his routes, and reduce the drops. Anecdotally, the 2nd half of this year didn't seem nearly as good as the 1st, and his production drop off coincided with the emergence of Antonio Brown - another dynamic, young receiver. It is possible that plays were called late in the year to hold down his value in the upcoming offseason. That seems far-fetched to me. I think it is more likely he was recognized to be Pittsburgh's #1 weapon, and defenses were rolled his way.
1. It took over a year, but Welker is back. It would be unwise for him to go somewhere else, but it might not be his decision. Safety blanket duty for Tom Brady should yield points for another year, or two. He was more consistent, nominally better, and can likely be had for similar value to Wallace next year. Expect a floor of 1,200 yards with 5 TDs. The ceiling is much higher.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
How Soon Is Too Soon?
The disparate tales of Peyton Manning, and Rob Gronkowski
There were very few, if any, players whose failure to participate in organized NFL football last year crushed fantasy owners as viciously as Peyton Manning. Those whose drafts occurred in the Spring, and early Summer, certainly felt the pain. Even those whose drafts took place in the immediate lead-up to Packers vs. Saints were led astray. In one league, a fellow competitor took Manning 35th mere days before the start of the season. No one could be sure what Manning would do in 2011, but nothing instantly took some managers out of contention.
So, what is to make of Peyton's 2012 prospects. The first concern, or course, is the basic question of health. Just today it was announced by ESPN's Adam Schefter, and others, that Peyton Manning appears to have undergone, not 3, but rather 4 surgeries and procedures to deal with his neck issues. Follow the link for Schefter's report.
ESPN Manning Report (Schefter)
Even if Manning remains on the Colts, there is no guarantee that his claim to the position is locked up for the year - as it has been in seasons past. Andrew Luck (QB) from Stanford is expected to be drafted #1 overall. In addition to the looming challenge within his own ranks, Reggie Wayne (WR) is a free agent. I imagine Wayne can get paid reasonably well somewhere if the Colts don't want to ante up for a repeat of his services. Can the Colts pay Wayne? If Peyton insists on his upcoming 28 million dollar roster bonus they certainly can't.
If Manning has to go elsewhere, the situation does not improve markedly. According to Boomer Esiason of CBS Sports, speaking today on 670 AM in Chicago, the two most likely landing spots outside of Indy appear to be Miami, and Washington. We know the Redskins have nobody to catch the football (I refuse to acknowledge the 74 year-old, 5 ft. 1 inch Santana Moss). Miami does have Brandon Marshall at present, but it remains to be seen if he stays. I don't even want to get to the point of projecting if Marshall's anti-psycosis medication(s?) hold up. I'll take another stab at him (pun intended) as the season approaches.
So, where does that leave us. I don't think we know much more now than we did in the lead-up to the season last year. And we have a paradigm we use to make decisions when that is the case.
I knew what he was trying to say. Unless I see Peyton Manning actually throwing 50-yard outs during the preseason, I don't want any part of him. If I do, I think he's backup material, or maybe a starter in VERY deep leagues (14+ teams). He could move up to the top-10, but I think it is unlikely.
While Peyton was doing his best to contribute to an insane discussion about who is the top NFL Manning ever (By the way - it's still Peyton), Rob Gronkowski was doing his best to rewrite the NFL record book. When not partying with porn stars, or managing to butcher Spanglish (yes, he somehow butchered Spanglish), he proved to be absolutely uncoverable (probably not a word) on the football field. In 2011 he wasn't just the best tight end, he was the second best receiver (behind Calvin Johnson). If it weren't for his postseason ankle injury, I know that we'd be hearing quite a chorus of people who believe he should be taken in the top-10 of fantasy drafts next year. Some, including ESPN's Matthew Berry, are saying it anyway.
Matthew Berry Ranks
You've got to be really careful with Berry. Remember, he's the guy who said take Michael Vick #1 overall last year, and make sure to grab Antonio Gates really early too. I have an MD friend who I am sure goes to bed at night cursing Berry for that Michael Vick recommendation. I am also sure that friend isn't alone.
So, what is to be done with Gronkowski. It bears mentioning that the Patriots didn't really have a deep threat last year of the traditional variety. Deion Branch was the closest thing to it, and he managed a little over 700 yards with 5 TDs. Welker, for all of his impressiveness, is a glorified possession receiver. Gronkowski WAS the deep threat last year. That is going to change...somewhat. 1. Defenses will adjust their coverages to jam Gronkowski more at the line of scrimmage, 2. The Patriots will pick up a quality #1 receiver before the start of the 2012 season, 3. It remains to be seen when, and in what state Gronk comes back from his injury, 4. The Patriots are known for their tactical misdirection. Just when you think you are going to get a decade of a dominant offensive player (save Tom Brady), they switch it up. And most importantly, 5. Aaron Hernandez will still be lurking. Gronkowski managed what he did in part because Aaron Hernandez missed 13% of the regular season, and was physically limited by injury in another 13%. Expect a 25% reduction in Gronkowski's yards next year, and a 30% reduction in touchdown receptions. That puts Gronk right around 1,000 yards with 12 TDs. With those numbers he would be the second best tight end, and eighth best pass-catcher overall. He is going to go really early next year, but it is always unwise to pay for last year's performance. Going off the board before pick 23 is too early. The highlights below are impressive.
There were very few, if any, players whose failure to participate in organized NFL football last year crushed fantasy owners as viciously as Peyton Manning. Those whose drafts occurred in the Spring, and early Summer, certainly felt the pain. Even those whose drafts took place in the immediate lead-up to Packers vs. Saints were led astray. In one league, a fellow competitor took Manning 35th mere days before the start of the season. No one could be sure what Manning would do in 2011, but nothing instantly took some managers out of contention.
So, what is to make of Peyton's 2012 prospects. The first concern, or course, is the basic question of health. Just today it was announced by ESPN's Adam Schefter, and others, that Peyton Manning appears to have undergone, not 3, but rather 4 surgeries and procedures to deal with his neck issues. Follow the link for Schefter's report.
ESPN Manning Report (Schefter)
Even if Manning remains on the Colts, there is no guarantee that his claim to the position is locked up for the year - as it has been in seasons past. Andrew Luck (QB) from Stanford is expected to be drafted #1 overall. In addition to the looming challenge within his own ranks, Reggie Wayne (WR) is a free agent. I imagine Wayne can get paid reasonably well somewhere if the Colts don't want to ante up for a repeat of his services. Can the Colts pay Wayne? If Peyton insists on his upcoming 28 million dollar roster bonus they certainly can't.
If Manning has to go elsewhere, the situation does not improve markedly. According to Boomer Esiason of CBS Sports, speaking today on 670 AM in Chicago, the two most likely landing spots outside of Indy appear to be Miami, and Washington. We know the Redskins have nobody to catch the football (I refuse to acknowledge the 74 year-old, 5 ft. 1 inch Santana Moss). Miami does have Brandon Marshall at present, but it remains to be seen if he stays. I don't even want to get to the point of projecting if Marshall's anti-psycosis medication(s?) hold up. I'll take another stab at him (pun intended) as the season approaches.
So, where does that leave us. I don't think we know much more now than we did in the lead-up to the season last year. And we have a paradigm we use to make decisions when that is the case.
I knew what he was trying to say. Unless I see Peyton Manning actually throwing 50-yard outs during the preseason, I don't want any part of him. If I do, I think he's backup material, or maybe a starter in VERY deep leagues (14+ teams). He could move up to the top-10, but I think it is unlikely.
While Peyton was doing his best to contribute to an insane discussion about who is the top NFL Manning ever (By the way - it's still Peyton), Rob Gronkowski was doing his best to rewrite the NFL record book. When not partying with porn stars, or managing to butcher Spanglish (yes, he somehow butchered Spanglish), he proved to be absolutely uncoverable (probably not a word) on the football field. In 2011 he wasn't just the best tight end, he was the second best receiver (behind Calvin Johnson). If it weren't for his postseason ankle injury, I know that we'd be hearing quite a chorus of people who believe he should be taken in the top-10 of fantasy drafts next year. Some, including ESPN's Matthew Berry, are saying it anyway.
Matthew Berry Ranks
You've got to be really careful with Berry. Remember, he's the guy who said take Michael Vick #1 overall last year, and make sure to grab Antonio Gates really early too. I have an MD friend who I am sure goes to bed at night cursing Berry for that Michael Vick recommendation. I am also sure that friend isn't alone.
So, what is to be done with Gronkowski. It bears mentioning that the Patriots didn't really have a deep threat last year of the traditional variety. Deion Branch was the closest thing to it, and he managed a little over 700 yards with 5 TDs. Welker, for all of his impressiveness, is a glorified possession receiver. Gronkowski WAS the deep threat last year. That is going to change...somewhat. 1. Defenses will adjust their coverages to jam Gronkowski more at the line of scrimmage, 2. The Patriots will pick up a quality #1 receiver before the start of the 2012 season, 3. It remains to be seen when, and in what state Gronk comes back from his injury, 4. The Patriots are known for their tactical misdirection. Just when you think you are going to get a decade of a dominant offensive player (save Tom Brady), they switch it up. And most importantly, 5. Aaron Hernandez will still be lurking. Gronkowski managed what he did in part because Aaron Hernandez missed 13% of the regular season, and was physically limited by injury in another 13%. Expect a 25% reduction in Gronkowski's yards next year, and a 30% reduction in touchdown receptions. That puts Gronk right around 1,000 yards with 12 TDs. With those numbers he would be the second best tight end, and eighth best pass-catcher overall. He is going to go really early next year, but it is always unwise to pay for last year's performance. Going off the board before pick 23 is too early. The highlights below are impressive.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
The Mid-February Top-10
Gauging the prospects for the first round of the 2012 Fantasy Football Draft
2011 was a record-breaker of epic proportions in the NFL, and savvy participants who saw it coming benefited in the fantasy realm as well. Drew Brees, and Tom Brady both surpassed the "unbreakable record" previously held by Dan Marino of 5,084 passing yards in a single NFL season. I guess it was only unbreakable until the NFL decided it would be illegal to touch wide-receivers with any violence over, and above that necessary to kill a household fruit fly. With the additional attention that is being paid to concussive, and sub-concussive hits, the likelihood that QBs in the future will re-break Brees' new standard of 5,476 yards seems high. It might not happen in 2012, but it will happen.
Rob Gronkowski didn't just break records as a tight end, his 17 TD performance was good for a tie in FIFTH PLACE all-time amongst pass catchers of any stripe. FIFTH. Every single player tied with, or ahead of Gronk is in the Hall of Fame. It was quite the fiesta last year.
While the passers, and receivers were tearing it up, running backs took a further historical step back in 2011. Not one RB finished with a rushing total to rank in the top-45 all-time. MJD's 1,606 yards nets him 48th place all. 2011 wasn't the first year of this continuing trend. In 2010 only one running back cracked the top-50 all-time (Arian Foster). Ditto for 2009 (CJ...the year he actually got 2K). The guys toting the rock out of the backfield are either doing it in a committee these days, or are having to find more, and more of their yardage through the air to stack up against fantasy offensive players at other positions. Ray Rice, and Darren Sproles got a lot of their yardage through the air. 704 yards in the case of Sproles. Fantasy purists can hate it all they want, but the trend is to chuck it. I expect 2012 to bring more of the same.
So, without further ado, it is on to the 2012 Fantasy Football Mid-February Rankings. Feel free to critique, and criticize. They are pretty solid, and based on a proprietary formula. These rankings are geared to a standard league with standard scoring (NO PPR).
1. Aaron Rodgers - Not since the days of LaDainian Tomlinson in his heyday in San Diego has their been a #1 selection this clear. His offensive line sucked in 2011...and he was still great. The Packers had no running game...and he was still great. His team was coming off a Super Bowl, and could easily have had a let-down season...and he was still great. This ranking assumes his general good health, and the return of a Jermichael Finley in comparatively happy spirits. Finley's contract status, or displeasure with the arrangement reached could do a little damage, but not enough to change the ranking. 940.86 points on a 1,000 point scale. Values for consistency, value, upside outlier performances, and nominal point scoring were considered. As we get closer to the season these points will change based upon personnel changes, staff changes, and health.
2. Drew Brees - No player ranked as high as he is could see as precipitous a fall from here as could Drew. As I write this, there appear, according to multiple channels, to be very real fears that the Saints might lose, or part ways with either 1.) Marques Colston (WR), or 2.) Carl Nicks (LG). While it is true that the Saints have a franchise tag they could use to keep one of these guys tied up, the Saints still haven't worked out a long-term deal with Brees himself. When you add in the suspect nature of the Saints D, there is no guarantee that Brees isn't down both a key weapon, and an integral protector going into next year. 820.24 points.
3. LeSean McCoy - Biggest risks to LeSean's retention in the realm of fantasy glory are the fact that Michael Vick's season may have been an outlier to the downside, and that the Eagles could lose the field-stretching services of DeSean Jackson(WR). McCoy scored the touchdowns that Vick had in the year prior, and some rebalancing is likely to take place. The injury at the end of 2011 is another lingering concern for a player ranked this highly. 802.02 points.
4. Ray Rice - The little guy was every bit the success his owners hoped for in 2011. If the Ravens can settle Joe Flacco into a more calm state of mind, the sky is the limit for RR. He benefited tremendously from the addition of Vonta(e?) Leach(FB), and that collaboration is likely to continue. In just the past couple weeks, Ricky Williams (RB) announced that 2011 was his last year in the bigs. We'll have to wait and see if the "herb of the earth" led him to his decision, will lead him to change his mind, or had no impact at all. 739.46 points.
5. Arian Foster - He seems fully recovered from the preseason injury that cost some of his fantasy owners a run at the title in 2011. What is sure to be an unsettled quarterback situation going into 2012 puts a bit of a damper on the upside, but this thoughtful back could easily be in the mix to break records. 733.98 points.
6. MJD - A year removed from a career-changing injury scare, and all MJD did was come up big for owners in 2011. With Blaine Gabbert doing very little to take the pressure off through the air, MJD did what was required - play workhorse back in a league that doesn't use workhorse backs anymore. He is another year older, but he has an intangible value that goes overlooked...the guy plays, and loves fantasy football himself. He WANTS to do well for his owners. I don't see how the situation in Jacksonville gets worse than 2011, and MJD was a stud then. 714.49 points.
7. Cam Newton - He blew away the NFL, and Fantasy Football in 2011. In some leagues he made his original owners very happy when their wait for Tony Romo didn't pan out. In others, he permitted managers to trade mid-season for high end pieces for the title run. The concern here is that his performance could be a bit of an outlier - like Vick in 2010. I don't think so. His consistency from game-to-game, and physical size call that comparison into question. Cam Newton doesn't get hit by linebackers. He hits linebackers...who he is much bigger than. Maybe he steps back a little bit, but not a lot. 703.05 points.
8. Tom Brady - The Patriots could certainly decide that they are going to change everything up next year, and run the ball more. If they lose Welker, don't get Moss, and Gronkowski's ankle doesn't heal, that might be realistic. In the absence of such a perfect storm, and the emergence of a running back who doesn't have a lame nickname (the law firm, really?), I think it is more aerial attack more of the time. Also, the Patriots are notorious record hounds. If there is any chance, I guarantee they try to unseat Drew Brees at the top of the record book. 701.48 points.
9. Calvin Johnson - Megatron was a beast last year, but owners should know that no player in the first round has his value so inextricably tied to exogenous forces (see Matthew Stafford, and his known fragility). His quarterback got through the entirety of last year upright, but watching pudge play always makes me worried. Stafford does have some mobility, and if his O-Line continues to improve, Calvin should still see the ball plenty. All it will take is one unblocked Julius Peppers, or delayed blitz from the Clay Matthews band to change all that. 637.84 points.
10. Matthew Stafford - I didn't want to rank him here, but the numbers say I have to. In addition to Calvin, he has serviceable additional wideouts and a potential stud at tight end (Pettigrew). I think by the time August rolls around, and we have more information, some running backs pass him up. As for now, he's number 10. 603.93 points.
2011 was a record-breaker of epic proportions in the NFL, and savvy participants who saw it coming benefited in the fantasy realm as well. Drew Brees, and Tom Brady both surpassed the "unbreakable record" previously held by Dan Marino of 5,084 passing yards in a single NFL season. I guess it was only unbreakable until the NFL decided it would be illegal to touch wide-receivers with any violence over, and above that necessary to kill a household fruit fly. With the additional attention that is being paid to concussive, and sub-concussive hits, the likelihood that QBs in the future will re-break Brees' new standard of 5,476 yards seems high. It might not happen in 2012, but it will happen.
Rob Gronkowski didn't just break records as a tight end, his 17 TD performance was good for a tie in FIFTH PLACE all-time amongst pass catchers of any stripe. FIFTH. Every single player tied with, or ahead of Gronk is in the Hall of Fame. It was quite the fiesta last year.
So, without further ado, it is on to the 2012 Fantasy Football Mid-February Rankings. Feel free to critique, and criticize. They are pretty solid, and based on a proprietary formula. These rankings are geared to a standard league with standard scoring (NO PPR).
1. Aaron Rodgers - Not since the days of LaDainian Tomlinson in his heyday in San Diego has their been a #1 selection this clear. His offensive line sucked in 2011...and he was still great. The Packers had no running game...and he was still great. His team was coming off a Super Bowl, and could easily have had a let-down season...and he was still great. This ranking assumes his general good health, and the return of a Jermichael Finley in comparatively happy spirits. Finley's contract status, or displeasure with the arrangement reached could do a little damage, but not enough to change the ranking. 940.86 points on a 1,000 point scale. Values for consistency, value, upside outlier performances, and nominal point scoring were considered. As we get closer to the season these points will change based upon personnel changes, staff changes, and health.
2. Drew Brees - No player ranked as high as he is could see as precipitous a fall from here as could Drew. As I write this, there appear, according to multiple channels, to be very real fears that the Saints might lose, or part ways with either 1.) Marques Colston (WR), or 2.) Carl Nicks (LG). While it is true that the Saints have a franchise tag they could use to keep one of these guys tied up, the Saints still haven't worked out a long-term deal with Brees himself. When you add in the suspect nature of the Saints D, there is no guarantee that Brees isn't down both a key weapon, and an integral protector going into next year. 820.24 points.
3. LeSean McCoy - Biggest risks to LeSean's retention in the realm of fantasy glory are the fact that Michael Vick's season may have been an outlier to the downside, and that the Eagles could lose the field-stretching services of DeSean Jackson(WR). McCoy scored the touchdowns that Vick had in the year prior, and some rebalancing is likely to take place. The injury at the end of 2011 is another lingering concern for a player ranked this highly. 802.02 points.
4. Ray Rice - The little guy was every bit the success his owners hoped for in 2011. If the Ravens can settle Joe Flacco into a more calm state of mind, the sky is the limit for RR. He benefited tremendously from the addition of Vonta(e?) Leach(FB), and that collaboration is likely to continue. In just the past couple weeks, Ricky Williams (RB) announced that 2011 was his last year in the bigs. We'll have to wait and see if the "herb of the earth" led him to his decision, will lead him to change his mind, or had no impact at all. 739.46 points.
5. Arian Foster - He seems fully recovered from the preseason injury that cost some of his fantasy owners a run at the title in 2011. What is sure to be an unsettled quarterback situation going into 2012 puts a bit of a damper on the upside, but this thoughtful back could easily be in the mix to break records. 733.98 points.
6. MJD - A year removed from a career-changing injury scare, and all MJD did was come up big for owners in 2011. With Blaine Gabbert doing very little to take the pressure off through the air, MJD did what was required - play workhorse back in a league that doesn't use workhorse backs anymore. He is another year older, but he has an intangible value that goes overlooked...the guy plays, and loves fantasy football himself. He WANTS to do well for his owners. I don't see how the situation in Jacksonville gets worse than 2011, and MJD was a stud then. 714.49 points.
7. Cam Newton - He blew away the NFL, and Fantasy Football in 2011. In some leagues he made his original owners very happy when their wait for Tony Romo didn't pan out. In others, he permitted managers to trade mid-season for high end pieces for the title run. The concern here is that his performance could be a bit of an outlier - like Vick in 2010. I don't think so. His consistency from game-to-game, and physical size call that comparison into question. Cam Newton doesn't get hit by linebackers. He hits linebackers...who he is much bigger than. Maybe he steps back a little bit, but not a lot. 703.05 points.
8. Tom Brady - The Patriots could certainly decide that they are going to change everything up next year, and run the ball more. If they lose Welker, don't get Moss, and Gronkowski's ankle doesn't heal, that might be realistic. In the absence of such a perfect storm, and the emergence of a running back who doesn't have a lame nickname (the law firm, really?), I think it is more aerial attack more of the time. Also, the Patriots are notorious record hounds. If there is any chance, I guarantee they try to unseat Drew Brees at the top of the record book. 701.48 points.
9. Calvin Johnson - Megatron was a beast last year, but owners should know that no player in the first round has his value so inextricably tied to exogenous forces (see Matthew Stafford, and his known fragility). His quarterback got through the entirety of last year upright, but watching pudge play always makes me worried. Stafford does have some mobility, and if his O-Line continues to improve, Calvin should still see the ball plenty. All it will take is one unblocked Julius Peppers, or delayed blitz from the Clay Matthews band to change all that. 637.84 points.
10. Matthew Stafford - I didn't want to rank him here, but the numbers say I have to. In addition to Calvin, he has serviceable additional wideouts and a potential stud at tight end (Pettigrew). I think by the time August rolls around, and we have more information, some running backs pass him up. As for now, he's number 10. 603.93 points.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Get Your 84 Jerseys Out
The Return of the Moss
In fairness, it is the middle of February, but the biggest NFL news of the past 24 hours must be the impending unretirement (not a word) of Mr. Randy Moss. If you haven't seen the wonderful montage of Moss-isms below, it is a must-view. If you have, it is worth another look. Beyond the basic questions of (1) why is Randy breaking his cleats out of the closet, and (2) when does he expect to get a look by interested teams, the most important issue from my perspective is, "will Moss be fantasy-relevant?"
Assuming that Peyton Manning maintains eligibility for comeback player of the year, it might be difficult for Moss to make a run at that title. Difficult, that is, if he lands in a poor spot with a weak-armed quarterback, or run-first offensive scheme. According to a couple of the analysts on ESPN's First Take this am (Bomani Jones, and Michael Holley), it is being implied in some circles that the Patriots could be interested in giving their own Randy-ratio another go. A thoroughgoing discussion, and video of the varied merits of Moss, and Terrell Owens can be found here. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7570336/randy-moss-says-wants-return-football-2012
Returning to the land of chowdah, and Kennedys would make the upcoming year a promising one for Moss in both the NFL, and derivative football worlds. At this early date, I have to imagine that Randy cracks the top-25 wide receivers if he is in say...Jacksonville - with the amazing Blaine Gabbert. Conversely, if Tom Terrific is throwing him the ball, I don't think top-10 is a stretch by any means.
What did Moss lose by sitting out 2011? He didn't get fat. Even if he can't run, or jump quite like he did a couple years ago, do you really think he will be unable to put up Stevie Johnson (Buffalo) numbers? What about Percy Harvin numbers? If it is Ponder to Harvin, and Brady to Moss, I'll take Randy.
That is, "straight-cash Homie."
In fairness, it is the middle of February, but the biggest NFL news of the past 24 hours must be the impending unretirement (not a word) of Mr. Randy Moss. If you haven't seen the wonderful montage of Moss-isms below, it is a must-view. If you have, it is worth another look. Beyond the basic questions of (1) why is Randy breaking his cleats out of the closet, and (2) when does he expect to get a look by interested teams, the most important issue from my perspective is, "will Moss be fantasy-relevant?"
Assuming that Peyton Manning maintains eligibility for comeback player of the year, it might be difficult for Moss to make a run at that title. Difficult, that is, if he lands in a poor spot with a weak-armed quarterback, or run-first offensive scheme. According to a couple of the analysts on ESPN's First Take this am (Bomani Jones, and Michael Holley), it is being implied in some circles that the Patriots could be interested in giving their own Randy-ratio another go. A thoroughgoing discussion, and video of the varied merits of Moss, and Terrell Owens can be found here. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7570336/randy-moss-says-wants-return-football-2012
Returning to the land of chowdah, and Kennedys would make the upcoming year a promising one for Moss in both the NFL, and derivative football worlds. At this early date, I have to imagine that Randy cracks the top-25 wide receivers if he is in say...Jacksonville - with the amazing Blaine Gabbert. Conversely, if Tom Terrific is throwing him the ball, I don't think top-10 is a stretch by any means.
What did Moss lose by sitting out 2011? He didn't get fat. Even if he can't run, or jump quite like he did a couple years ago, do you really think he will be unable to put up Stevie Johnson (Buffalo) numbers? What about Percy Harvin numbers? If it is Ponder to Harvin, and Brady to Moss, I'll take Randy.
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