1. Aaron Rodgers - Absolutely nothing has changed in the landscape of professional football to force Mr. Rodgers to relinquish his lofty ranking. His receiving corps is healthy, he isn't presently concussed...as far as we know, and Green Bay spent virtually every draft pick upgrading their defense - because the offense is THAT good. Although he will have some challenging DBs playing against him during the course of the next year, he only faces 3 games against a top-10 pass D this coming year (2011 stats), and 4 games against a top-10 scoring D. Any publication you read that knocks him out of the top overall spot in favor of someone like Arian Foster had to drop Rodgers' TD projections precipitously - a notable example is Pro Football Weekly who took him from his 2011 actual of 45 TDs down to a projection of 35 in 2012. They provided no discussion as to how they reached that conclusion. Other things to keep in mind: a. his rushing stats are likely to increase a bit from 2011, b. he only played in 15 games last year, c. he's got Brees' record to chase, d. Jeff Saturday comes in to anchor the line, and e. in 2011 Aaron Rodgers arguably had 0 bad games. The closest thing to it was week 15 where he put up 235 yards through the air with 1 TD. Imagine rostering a QB where that is his "bad" game. The realistic projection here is 4,800 yards, and 40 TDs passing with an additional 300 yards, and 4 TDs on the ground.
Packers Update (7/25/12)
2. Drew Brees - Whew, they got him signed. That would have been really weird to have Drew playing in New Orleans under the franchise tag. Anyway, the only reason to consider placing Brees any lower than this is the absence of Sean Payton. I don't think you should be worried about the absence of Sean Payton. Do you remember last year? Do you remember Sean Payton getting rolled up on the sideline, and being unable to call plays? What sort of dropoff did you see? The answer is none. Pete Carmichael, Jr. will be calling the plays - just as he did during Coach Payton's injury last year. Brees will function as another coach on the field. Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and Devery Henderson will again make it impossible for defenses to cover everyone. Oh, one other thing, the Saints have arguably the easiest schedule in football this year in terms of the defenses they'll face. Based upon 2011 statistics, the Saints face only 1 of the top-10 passing defenses in the league (yardage). If points are a more comfortable barometer for you, they only face 2 of the top-10 scoring defenses. Even with the loss of their left guard, Carl Nicks, the Saints maintain one of the top-10 offensive lines in all of football. (added Ben Grubbs from the Ravens) A reasonable projection is 5,300 yards with 40+ TDs. He'll also get you another 100 yards, and a score on the ground. He should be drafted in the top-half of the first round.
3. Tom Brady - Tom Brady is an amazing player in an amazing situation. He has a top-5 offensive line, 2 TEs - of whom either would be selected to start by the vast majority of NFL franchises, the top possession receiver in the game (W. Welker), and now a legitimate deep threat ( B. Lloyd). He plays for a team that respects the idea of securing records, and has one such record to chase (D. Brees yardage). So, that's the good. The only thing that keeps Tom Terrific from ranking in the same stratosphere as the players listed above is the level of competition he is going to face this year. Brady will face 6 games against a top-10 pass D this coming year, and 7 against a top-10 scoring D. Last year, in comparison, it was 5, and 4. The loss of BenJarvis Green-Ellis in free agency means the running game will be of uncertain quality. When you add it all up, last year should be viewed as a most-probable outcome with any divergence coming to the downside. Look for 5,200 yards in the air, around 40 passing TDs, and add in another 100 yards on the ground with 1 score running. He is a great value late in the first round, and criminal early in the second.
4. Matthew Stafford - NO PLAYER IN THE TOP-10 FANTASY QB RANKINGS IS AT A LARGER RISK OF DIVERGENCE FROM EXPECTED OUTCOME THAN IS MATT STAFFORD. 2011 was Stafford's first pro season where he lasted to the end. In a division where he has to face Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, and Clay Matthews a total of 6 times, it could easily be the last season he makes it to the end. This isn't just an abstraction based upon the quality of defensive players he's likely to face. Stafford's offensive line is, charitably, average. It is probably more accurate to say that they are bad. Maybe not worst in the league bad, but bad nonetheless. Also, Stafford's likelihood of living up to this ranking is tied directly to 1 target - Calvin Johnson. Maybe you like Brandon Pettigrew - I do too - in the 14th, or 15th round of my draft. Maybe you like Nate Burleson - that's not for me. Ultimately, this means that in order to justify taking Stafford where you'll have to in order to secure his services (probably 2nd round), you are relying on not only Stafford's health, but Megatron's as well. It is cool to give football players fun nicknames, and Megatron is 1. But, it isn't that accurate. Remember, in addition to Stafford's situation, 2011 was also the first pro year that Johnson played in all 16 games. If Jahvid Best (concussions), and Mikel Leshoure (weed) can get on, and stay on the field, some pressure might get taken off the passing game. For fantasy football purposes, this is the quintessential double-edged sword. When all that is combined with the fact that Stafford faces 4 of the top-10 passing Ds, and 5 of the top-10 scoring Ds, it seems unlikely that he will be able to statistically repeat what he did last year - though I expect he'll get close. His statistical projection is 4,900 yards passing with 36 passing scores. Expect about 100 yards more on the ground with 1 rushing TD. He is likely to miss a game, or even two because of injury. Secure another elite player, and get Stafford late in the 2nd round if you can.
5. Cam Newton - No quarterback in the history of NFL quarterbacks statistically burst onto the scene quite like Cam Newton. All the guy did was set records. Are they repeatable? Some people believe that the NFL lockout was a boon to Cam - leaving defenses ill-prepared for his other-worldly combination of size, speed, and passing ability. What do the game logs tell us? After week 4 of last year, Cam failed to surpass 300 yards passing in every game he played. He failed to pass for over 200 yards in each of the year's final 3 games. He even failed to throw a touchdown pass at all in 2 of his outings. But, the man did run...into the endzone on 14 occassions, and for a total of over 700 yards. The Panthers have one of the best offensive lines in the game, and Mr. Newton has an easy schedule - 1 game against a top scoring D, and 2 against a top pass D. The rushing TDs probably regress a bit, but the rest of it holds up just fine. Best projection is 4,000 yards passing with 23 TD passes. Running the ball he figures to chew up 800 yards, but probably secures 10, or fewer rushing TDs. Keep in mind that the Panthers went out, and got Mike Tolbert to further muddy the running water, and limit all other goalline opportunities. He is value at the beginning of the 3rd round, but you'll probably have to take him in the middle of the 2nd if you want to roll with him.
6. Eli Manning - The younger, less-talented, but more successful Manning is the direction you should consider going if you pass / miss on the elite QB list. That's right, there are 5 elite QBs. You can call it a tier if you'd like. Unlike some of the pigskin tossers who find themselves a bit lower on this list, Manning finds himself here because he upped his game to close to elite standards in '11. Historically a 4,000 yd / yr passer (4,021 - '09 / 4,002 - '10), Eli somehow found 900 additional yards last year. The source of those 900 additional yards goes by the name Victor Cruz. Unfortunately for Manning, the Giants, and anyone interested in their fantasy prospects, is that the 2011 Giants featured 3 legitimate WR options (Cruz, Nicks, Manningham). The third of that list is now in San Francisco. It is true that Manningham didn't crack 100 yards in any game in '11, and that he had only 4 TD catches the whole year. Even so, it was the omnipresence of receiving threats that permitted the breakout seasons for both Eli, and Victor. Even with those many varied options, Eli failed to throw a TD pass on 3 separate occasions. He failed to break 300 yards passing in half of his games. Still, if you find yourself pondering Manning, it means that you didn't really put QB at the top of your list of concerns for the upcoming season. He isn't great, but is less bad than the other options available. His O-line is average, and he has a tough schedule (6 games vs. top-10 pass D, 7 games against top-10 scoring D). In total, he won't get to 4,900 yards again. He projects to 4,500 yards through the air with 30 TDs. I don't know if he can't run, but he certainly doesn't. I don't expect that to change. Eli is a 6th round value who will leave appropriately leave draft boards between the 5th, and 6th.
7. Michael Vick - You only draft Michael Vick if you plan to make decisions regarding his utilization on a week-to-week basis considering the matchups he confronts. He CAN win games for you singlehandedly, and he WILL lose games for you singlehandedly if you are up against a team with an elite QB in that particular week. Many were angered when they followed Matthew Berry's (The Talented Mr. Roto) advice last year, and took Michael Vick in a position as if he were an elite fantasy QB. They should be angry because his advice was RIDICULOUS. Michael Vick is the opposite of what you want out of an elite fantasy QB. If he is a paragon of anything it is inconsistency. You know this character from other sports. He is the talented streak shooter who sometimes can't buy a bucket. He is the 3-outcome baseball player who 1 year flirts with the strikeout record (Adam Dunn), and the next year hits 30 homers before August 1st (also Adam Dunn). You can draft this player. You can win with this player. You just can't win your league playing this player every week. So, don't try. Other issues should go without saying, but I'll say them anyway: He won't be healthy every week. Don't expect him to be, or bitch when he isn't. He will throw lots of interceptions. Don't bitch when he does. Just make sure to guess right concerning the weeks he'll go off. Good luck with that. He has 6 games against a top-10 rush D, 4 against a top-10 pass D, and 4 against a top-10 scoring D. Which, overall, isn't so bad. His offensive line is average, and his recievers (D.Jax/Maclin/Celek) are probably just better than the line - in comparison. A reasonable projection for Vick is 3,400 yards passing with 22 TD passes. I expect his production will steal a bit back from what McCoy vultured last year. On the ground he'll run for 600, and he'll find the endzone 8 times, or so. If you can get him in the 6th, it is good value. Unfortunately, you'll probably have to take him by the end of the 4th to get him on your team. Even though many were burned by him, the excitement of watching Vick run around on Monday Night Football is just too much for some players to avoid.
8. Philip Rivers - Put up your hands if you think Philip Rivers was a bust last year. Ok...so...all of you. Well, you're wrong. Philip Rivers just stayed on planet Earth while Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and others headed to the stratosphere. Consider 2010 - Rivers threw for 4,710 and 30 scores. In 2011 it was 4,624 and 27 scores. He also had a couple more picks, and ran for a TD that he didn't secure in 2010. So, again, not a bust. I don't want to be relying him in the modern age of fantasy football, but he wasn't a bust. He loses V.Jax, but picks up Meachem. That's a downgrade, but not a huge one. He loses Mike Tolbert, but supposedly Matthews is ready to carry the load...that discussion is for another day. He only had 1 game where he failed to throw a TD pass. If you can't handle the delta that Vick will give, and you waited this long to get a QB, grab Rivers. His offensive line is somewhere below average, and his upcoming matchups are about average as well (5 games against a top-10 passing D, 5 against a top-10 scoring D). Given that this year's schedule is statistically more difficult than last, I can't predict much improvement. Best prediction is 4,700 yards, and 30 TDs. He'll limit the INTs a bit, and be just fine - for the 8th best statistically in the game.
9. Peyton Manning - His neck might be fine, or it might not. Once you get to number 9 on the QB list, you probably should be considering drafting the 10th, or 11th best QB as well. Let's imagine a healthy Peyton Manning. It is 2010. He plays in all 16 games. He has Reggie Wayne to throw the ball to. He has complementary pieces that are serviceable. He throws 679 passes! And the end result is he throws for 4,700 yards + 33 scores. If he does that this year, he's the 6th best on this list (considering projections). That, my friends, is not what a healthy Peyton Manning does this year. Remember, there's no more home dome. You trade an aging Reggie Wayne, young Austin Collie, young Pierre Garcon( I don't know how to include the symbol above his last name), and Dallas Clark. Now you get Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Jacob Tamme. That's NOT an upgrade. He plays 7 games against a top-10 pass D, and 5 against a top-10 scoring D. That is average, or below. What that adds up to is a ceiling of 4,600 + 32 TD. Prediction is 4,400 + 30.
10. Jay Cutler - Allright, Chicago, here you go. The #10 ranked quarterback in all of fantasy footballand is none other than Jay Cutler. But Mr. Weck, Jay Cutler has never had a statistical season that warrants such a ranking. Once again, my friends, you are mistaken. Jay Cutler has put his band back together. He has his old QB coach back, he still has his safety blanket from college (Earl Bennett), and he managed to pry psychotic(not sure if that is the accurate term) Brandon Marshall out of Miami. The last time Jay had such assembled familiarity, and happiness he threw for 4,526 with 28 TDs. That was before quarterbacks regularly threw for 4,526. That was 2008. Since then, all Jay has done is improve. Well, he's gotten his head bashed in by a horrible offensive line...but he has improved. He's improved his footwork. He's improved his decisionmaking. He's improved his leadership. He learned all these things from Mike Martz. Jay didn't like Mike Martz, but he certainly improved under his tutelage. Which leads us to 2012. Jay's O-line still sucks. It is one of the worst in the game. There is an ongoing battle to see which horrible lineman gets to not protect Jay's blindside. Jay might not play 16 games. But if the play calling changes enough, and if someone, anyone decides to block, it might be o.k. Remember, you waited to get the 10th best QB. The Bears play only 4 games against a top-10 pass D, and also 4 against a top-10 scoring D. We haven't yet mentioned Alshon Jeffrey, Matt Forte, Michael Bush, or Devin Hester. They'll be along for the ride too. A reasonable prediction is 4,500 and 29. It could even be better, but let's not push our luck.
Stay tuned for future installments of the Fantasy Lawyer's Top-10s over the next couple weeks.
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