There were very few, if any, players whose failure to participate in organized NFL football last year crushed fantasy owners as viciously as Peyton Manning. Those whose drafts occurred in the Spring, and early Summer, certainly felt the pain. Even those whose drafts took place in the immediate lead-up to Packers vs. Saints were led astray. In one league, a fellow competitor took Manning 35th mere days before the start of the season. No one could be sure what Manning would do in 2011, but nothing instantly took some managers out of contention.
So, what is to make of Peyton's 2012 prospects. The first concern, or course, is the basic question of health. Just today it was announced by ESPN's Adam Schefter, and others, that Peyton Manning appears to have undergone, not 3, but rather 4 surgeries and procedures to deal with his neck issues. Follow the link for Schefter's report.
ESPN Manning Report (Schefter)
Even if Manning remains on the Colts, there is no guarantee that his claim to the position is locked up for the year - as it has been in seasons past. Andrew Luck (QB) from Stanford is expected to be drafted #1 overall. In addition to the looming challenge within his own ranks, Reggie Wayne (WR) is a free agent. I imagine Wayne can get paid reasonably well somewhere if the Colts don't want to ante up for a repeat of his services. Can the Colts pay Wayne? If Peyton insists on his upcoming 28 million dollar roster bonus they certainly can't.
If Manning has to go elsewhere, the situation does not improve markedly. According to Boomer Esiason of CBS Sports, speaking today on 670 AM in Chicago, the two most likely landing spots outside of Indy appear to be Miami, and Washington. We know the Redskins have nobody to catch the football (I refuse to acknowledge the 74 year-old, 5 ft. 1 inch Santana Moss). Miami does have Brandon Marshall at present, but it remains to be seen if he stays. I don't even want to get to the point of projecting if Marshall's anti-psycosis medication(s?) hold up. I'll take another stab at him (pun intended) as the season approaches.
So, where does that leave us. I don't think we know much more now than we did in the lead-up to the season last year. And we have a paradigm we use to make decisions when that is the case.
I knew what he was trying to say. Unless I see Peyton Manning actually throwing 50-yard outs during the preseason, I don't want any part of him. If I do, I think he's backup material, or maybe a starter in VERY deep leagues (14+ teams). He could move up to the top-10, but I think it is unlikely.
While Peyton was doing his best to contribute to an insane discussion about who is the top NFL Manning ever (By the way - it's still Peyton), Rob Gronkowski was doing his best to rewrite the NFL record book. When not partying with porn stars, or managing to butcher Spanglish (yes, he somehow butchered Spanglish), he proved to be absolutely uncoverable (probably not a word) on the football field. In 2011 he wasn't just the best tight end, he was the second best receiver (behind Calvin Johnson). If it weren't for his postseason ankle injury, I know that we'd be hearing quite a chorus of people who believe he should be taken in the top-10 of fantasy drafts next year. Some, including ESPN's Matthew Berry, are saying it anyway.
Matthew Berry Ranks
You've got to be really careful with Berry. Remember, he's the guy who said take Michael Vick #1 overall last year, and make sure to grab Antonio Gates really early too. I have an MD friend who I am sure goes to bed at night cursing Berry for that Michael Vick recommendation. I am also sure that friend isn't alone.
So, what is to be done with Gronkowski. It bears mentioning that the Patriots didn't really have a deep threat last year of the traditional variety. Deion Branch was the closest thing to it, and he managed a little over 700 yards with 5 TDs. Welker, for all of his impressiveness, is a glorified possession receiver. Gronkowski WAS the deep threat last year. That is going to change...somewhat. 1. Defenses will adjust their coverages to jam Gronkowski more at the line of scrimmage, 2. The Patriots will pick up a quality #1 receiver before the start of the 2012 season, 3. It remains to be seen when, and in what state Gronk comes back from his injury, 4. The Patriots are known for their tactical misdirection. Just when you think you are going to get a decade of a dominant offensive player (save Tom Brady), they switch it up. And most importantly, 5. Aaron Hernandez will still be lurking. Gronkowski managed what he did in part because Aaron Hernandez missed 13% of the regular season, and was physically limited by injury in another 13%. Expect a 25% reduction in Gronkowski's yards next year, and a 30% reduction in touchdown receptions. That puts Gronk right around 1,000 yards with 12 TDs. With those numbers he would be the second best tight end, and eighth best pass-catcher overall. He is going to go really early next year, but it is always unwise to pay for last year's performance. Going off the board before pick 23 is too early. The highlights below are impressive.
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