Your 2012 Fantasy Draft

     It is never too early to begin thinking about the right moves to make in the upcoming 2012 Fantasy Football Draft.  Maybe you have only 1 to plan for, or perhaps a cool dozen.  Whichever is the case, there is only 1 right answer.  I don't want to say it, but I must.  As a Brett Favre fan, it causes me great pain to state with utmost certainty, "YOU MUST DRAFT AARON RODGERS at #1 this year if afforded the opportunity."  It goes without saying that, if you get the opportunity to scoop him up later, it is a no-brainer.
     By almost any metric, Mr. Rodgers made hand-puppets out of the Real NFL, and the derivative variety in which we participate.  Unless you participate in a league that managed to overwhelm the typical QB bias inherent in fantasy football, AND you selected perfectly during your 2011 fantasy draft, the team with the Double Check Champion very likely finished at, or toward, the top of your league this year.  Everything I've said so far begs the question, though, "Why will A.R. do it again?"  The answer, as simply put as possible, is that there is no reason to believe otherwise.

1. Aaron Rodgers scores points.  In standard formats, during the first 16 weeks of the NFL season last year, A.R.  scored 25 points more than the closest competitive QB (Drew Brees), and crushed the RB competition by over 80 (LeSean McCoy).

2. Aaron Rodgers provides value.  By this point in your fantasy football career, if you don't know what the concept of value based drafting is, it is time to either hang up your laptop, or get with the program.  I don't believe you HAVE TO follow the tenets of the philosophy, but you had better know what it is.  Using this tool, and valuing a replacement player as the 15th QB, or 35th RB, Rodgers again outpointed McCoy by over 20.  No other position player was anywhere near Rodgers.

3. Aaron Rodgers has big games.  During the course of 2011's first 16 weeks, Rodgers had performances that outpaced even his typical elite level in 14 of those 16 weeks.  Although Drew Brees, and LeSean McCoy also had great years, both of their results pale in comparison when considering how many games they personally WON for his fantasy owner last year.

4. Aaron Rodgers is consistent.  Of all the statistics in fantasy football, the most underutilized is probably the notion of consistency.  While not the spice of life, consistency is the spice that turns a mediocre fantasy football season into a run at glory.  There is a HUGE reason that Rodgers, MJD, Calvin Johnson, and Jimmy Graham show up time, and again on analyses of winning 2011 fantasy football teams.  In addition to their outliers on the upside, each had very few POOR performances.  In fact, Aaron Rodgers didn't have any.

   So, I know you'll get heat from your crazy friend who still believes that someone like LaDainian Tomlinson circa 5 years ago is going to run wild next year.  I suppose McCoy, Rice, or someone else might.  But 1 thing is for sure...from my vantage point here on the 13th of February, I don't think you should bet on it.