2011 was a record-breaker of epic proportions in the NFL, and savvy participants who saw it coming benefited in the fantasy realm as well. Drew Brees, and Tom Brady both surpassed the "unbreakable record" previously held by Dan Marino of 5,084 passing yards in a single NFL season. I guess it was only unbreakable until the NFL decided it would be illegal to touch wide-receivers with any violence over, and above that necessary to kill a household fruit fly. With the additional attention that is being paid to concussive, and sub-concussive hits, the likelihood that QBs in the future will re-break Brees' new standard of 5,476 yards seems high. It might not happen in 2012, but it will happen.
Rob Gronkowski didn't just break records as a tight end, his 17 TD performance was good for a tie in FIFTH PLACE all-time amongst pass catchers of any stripe. FIFTH. Every single player tied with, or ahead of Gronk is in the Hall of Fame. It was quite the fiesta last year.
So, without further ado, it is on to the 2012 Fantasy Football Mid-February Rankings. Feel free to critique, and criticize. They are pretty solid, and based on a proprietary formula. These rankings are geared to a standard league with standard scoring (NO PPR).
1. Aaron Rodgers - Not since the days of LaDainian Tomlinson in his heyday in San Diego has their been a #1 selection this clear. His offensive line sucked in 2011...and he was still great. The Packers had no running game...and he was still great. His team was coming off a Super Bowl, and could easily have had a let-down season...and he was still great. This ranking assumes his general good health, and the return of a Jermichael Finley in comparatively happy spirits. Finley's contract status, or displeasure with the arrangement reached could do a little damage, but not enough to change the ranking. 940.86 points on a 1,000 point scale. Values for consistency, value, upside outlier performances, and nominal point scoring were considered. As we get closer to the season these points will change based upon personnel changes, staff changes, and health.
2. Drew Brees - No player ranked as high as he is could see as precipitous a fall from here as could Drew. As I write this, there appear, according to multiple channels, to be very real fears that the Saints might lose, or part ways with either 1.) Marques Colston (WR), or 2.) Carl Nicks (LG). While it is true that the Saints have a franchise tag they could use to keep one of these guys tied up, the Saints still haven't worked out a long-term deal with Brees himself. When you add in the suspect nature of the Saints D, there is no guarantee that Brees isn't down both a key weapon, and an integral protector going into next year. 820.24 points.
3. LeSean McCoy - Biggest risks to LeSean's retention in the realm of fantasy glory are the fact that Michael Vick's season may have been an outlier to the downside, and that the Eagles could lose the field-stretching services of DeSean Jackson(WR). McCoy scored the touchdowns that Vick had in the year prior, and some rebalancing is likely to take place. The injury at the end of 2011 is another lingering concern for a player ranked this highly. 802.02 points.
4. Ray Rice - The little guy was every bit the success his owners hoped for in 2011. If the Ravens can settle Joe Flacco into a more calm state of mind, the sky is the limit for RR. He benefited tremendously from the addition of Vonta(e?) Leach(FB), and that collaboration is likely to continue. In just the past couple weeks, Ricky Williams (RB) announced that 2011 was his last year in the bigs. We'll have to wait and see if the "herb of the earth" led him to his decision, will lead him to change his mind, or had no impact at all. 739.46 points.
5. Arian Foster - He seems fully recovered from the preseason injury that cost some of his fantasy owners a run at the title in 2011. What is sure to be an unsettled quarterback situation going into 2012 puts a bit of a damper on the upside, but this thoughtful back could easily be in the mix to break records. 733.98 points.
6. MJD - A year removed from a career-changing injury scare, and all MJD did was come up big for owners in 2011. With Blaine Gabbert doing very little to take the pressure off through the air, MJD did what was required - play workhorse back in a league that doesn't use workhorse backs anymore. He is another year older, but he has an intangible value that goes overlooked...the guy plays, and loves fantasy football himself. He WANTS to do well for his owners. I don't see how the situation in Jacksonville gets worse than 2011, and MJD was a stud then. 714.49 points.
7. Cam Newton - He blew away the NFL, and Fantasy Football in 2011. In some leagues he made his original owners very happy when their wait for Tony Romo didn't pan out. In others, he permitted managers to trade mid-season for high end pieces for the title run. The concern here is that his performance could be a bit of an outlier - like Vick in 2010. I don't think so. His consistency from game-to-game, and physical size call that comparison into question. Cam Newton doesn't get hit by linebackers. He hits linebackers...who he is much bigger than. Maybe he steps back a little bit, but not a lot. 703.05 points.
8. Tom Brady - The Patriots could certainly decide that they are going to change everything up next year, and run the ball more. If they lose Welker, don't get Moss, and Gronkowski's ankle doesn't heal, that might be realistic. In the absence of such a perfect storm, and the emergence of a running back who doesn't have a lame nickname (the law firm, really?), I think it is more aerial attack more of the time. Also, the Patriots are notorious record hounds. If there is any chance, I guarantee they try to unseat Drew Brees at the top of the record book. 701.48 points.
9. Calvin Johnson - Megatron was a beast last year, but owners should know that no player in the first round has his value so inextricably tied to exogenous forces (see Matthew Stafford, and his known fragility). His quarterback got through the entirety of last year upright, but watching pudge play always makes me worried. Stafford does have some mobility, and if his O-Line continues to improve, Calvin should still see the ball plenty. All it will take is one unblocked Julius Peppers, or delayed blitz from the Clay Matthews band to change all that. 637.84 points.
10. Matthew Stafford - I didn't want to rank him here, but the numbers say I have to. In addition to Calvin, he has serviceable additional wideouts and a potential stud at tight end (Pettigrew). I think by the time August rolls around, and we have more information, some running backs pass him up. As for now, he's number 10. 603.93 points.
The only way, barring injury or crazy RB acquisitions, that Drew Brees goes before Arian Foster or Ray Rice is if the author drafts them himself. I think both go before LeSean as well in the non-PPR format you are discussing.
ReplyDeleteAllright, StashMonster, I'll start with a literal reply. In New Orleans, and the State of Louisiana generally, Brees will be taken 1st in many drafts. That would be crazy, but he will. This is a list of where players SHOULD be taken, not expected ADP. I agree that Foster will be over-drafted. Sleep on McCoy all you want. He was under drafted last year as well. With a functioning offense, I think his personal numbers hold up.
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